Heavy rain over the Schultz Fire scar caused heavy runoff in the subdivision and streets below.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain over the Schultz Fire scar caused heavy runoff in the subdivision and streets below.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 12, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST WED SEP 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END BY FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION BELOW 500 MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 500 MB WILL ALLOW THE SUN TO COME OUT OVER MANY AREAS. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW DEVELOPING TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAIN-COOLED. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON...A TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE CWA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE ADDED COOLING DUE TO THE LOW AS WELL AS WEAK DYNAMICS WILL OVERCOME THE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN RIM EASTWARD...WHERE SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL TWEAK THE POP/QPF FIELDS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN DUE TO THIS LOW. BY TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUD...WITH NO ABILITY TO CONVECT. AFTER THURSDAY...DRY AND SUBSIDENT WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL CIRCULATION COMES TO AN END. WE WILL LIKELY ZERO OUT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER FRIDAY. MINOR UPDATES ON THE WAY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFT SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC.........PETERSON AVIATION.......DL FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 940 AM MST WED SEP 12 2012 AZZ004>018-037>040-130700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 940 AM MST WED SEP 12 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PARTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA MAY GENERATE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME HAIL. STORMS SHOULD END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 955 AM MST WED SEP 12 2012 AZZ009-040-122015- COCONINO AZ- 955 AM MST WED SEP 12 2012 ...HIGH FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOENKOPI WASH... HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STORMS WHICH OCCURRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAVE CAUSED ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN MOENKOPI WASH NEAR MOENKOPI. A PEAK FLOW OF 5788 CFS OCCURRED AROUND 3 AM AT THE MOENKOPI RIVER GAUGE NEAR HIGHWAY 264. WHILE FLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING...FLOW IN EXCESS OF 2500 CFS STILL REMAINS. IF NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE WASH...ANTICIPATE FLOWS TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...POTENTIALLY REACHING NORMAL CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. && LAT...LON 3612 11119 3610 11117 3609 11123 3611 11124 TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 180DEG 0KT 3612 11116 RR
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain fell over the Schultz Fire area. Heavy run off covered subdivision streets. Runoff covered one lane of Highway 89 with debris and that lane was closed until the water went down and the debris was cleared.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 413092.