Thunderstorms caused heavy rain and flash flooding near Cordes.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms caused heavy rain and flash flooding near Cordes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 3:20 AM MST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 320 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY. STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MODERATE MONSOON CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS DRY AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. && .DISCUSSION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH 9 PM MST SATURDAY. DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA WITH MOST SITES (GPS DATA FROM THE SUOMI NETWORK/NOAA/USGS/USACE/DOT/AND OTHERS) REPORTING 1"-2" OF PW MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF AZ...THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TYPICAL MONSOON YEAR VALUES. WE HAVE SEVERAL FACTORS IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT ARE WORKING WITH EACH OTHER TO MAKE THE WEATHER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY RATHER UNIQUE. WE HAVE A SYNOPTIC NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST (CURRENTLY PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME) AND THEN A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED 50 TO 75 MILES WEST OF YUMA, AZ. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF ARIZONA TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT BY LATE MORNING INTO LATE EVENING TODAY. THE LIFT WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...PER MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY OVER YAVAPAI (LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON) AND COCONINO COUNTY (EARLY AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING). MODELS SUGGEST...AS THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY A LOW TO MID LEVEL JET FORMS WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. LAPSE RATES TODAY APPEAR TO RANGE FROM MOIST ADIABATIC TO LESS THAN DRY ADIABATIC ROUGHLY FROM 6.0 T0 7.5 DEG/KM...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET RUNNING UPSLOPE INTO THE BRADSHAWS. THE INSTABILITY... AND THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT AT CLOUD TOP LEVEL ABOVE THE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40 KNOTS THIS WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS AND HELP PRODUCE SOME STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE FLOW FROM THE LOW TO UPPER LEVELS...TRAINING STORMS WILL BE LIKELY (STORMS THAT FORM AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW WITH NUMEROUS CELLS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER A LOCALIZED AREA). BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STILL OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BEST MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOVED EAST INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT STILL WORKING ON THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SO SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A MODERATE MONSOON ACTIVITY DAY WITH SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. BY MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE PULLED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF ARIZONA...SO THAT THE STORMS OVER THE WEST WILL TYPICALLY BE DRIER AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED...IN THE EAST OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THE STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEGINNING OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIL 17Z...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. AFT 17Z...THUNDERSTORMS BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO BLACK CANYON CITY AND WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS ARIZONA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH WETTING RAINS PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER ON MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. STARTING TUESDAY...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVES INTO WESTERN THEN CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AZZ004>009-012-015-037-038 IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM MST SATURDAY. && PUBLIC.........TC AVIATION.......DL FIRE WEATHER...DL FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 401 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012 AZZ004>018-037>040-150730- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 401 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO BLACK CANYON CITY VALID FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 PM MST THIS EVENING. SEE PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. STORM THREATS ARE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING...LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODERATE MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE STATE. BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY COME BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported 5.47 inches of rain in 14 hours about ten miles southwest of Cordes.
A trained spotter reported heavy flows though Dripping Springs and Turkey Creek. It was the worst flooding in eight and a half years.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 401684, 401687.