High Wind in Alaska, November 13, 2012

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
310 PM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC OCEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH WILL THEN ESTABLISH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ALASKA OR NEAR THE BORDER OF CANADA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN RUSSIA WILL THEN LOCK IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO CREATE AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER
THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS.

SURFACE...LOW NEAR 80 N AND EAST OF 140 W LONG WILL DRIFT EAST.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT ALONG 72 NORTH LATITUDE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. 961 MB LOW JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA AND WEAKENING TO 987 MB 3PM THU THEN DRIFTING EAST.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION FROM JUST SOUTH OF GAMBELL TO SAINT MARYS TO
KING SALMON WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO SAINT MARYS AND WEAKEN WHILE THE REMAINDER MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
3AM WED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BECOME A 1028 MB HIGH COVERING THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHWEST AK FRI AM.

MODELS...AGREE OK IN SHORT TERM ALOFT AND AT SURFACE. IN MEDIUM
THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SETUP OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE RESULTING INFLUX OF COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTH SLOPE...WILL CONTINUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME FOR
ZONES 203 AND 204. AS SOME SQUALLS ARE MOVING THROUGH BARROW EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN IN ZONE 203 LATER
TODAY BEFORE IMPROVING TONIGHT. THE CURRENT WEATHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WILL PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN THREE COASTAL ZONES AND
206 TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WED IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WEST WIND THU FOR EASTERN ZONES...NOT AS STRONG
THOUGH...DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH
ARCTIC AND THE HIGH GETTING SITUATED OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BE UNDER A QUIET AND DRY PATTERN.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE OCCLUSION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN SO THE PROSPECT OF RECEIVING HIGH WINDS AT THE REPORTING
STATIONS IN ZONE 213 APPEARS BORDERLINE...WILL LEAVE THIS WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 215 WILL BE
CONTINUED AS SNOW PERSISTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD NORTH
TO NEAR UNALAKLEET TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING PRECIP OVER 214 AND SOUTHERN 215
TONIGHT OR EARLY WED...APPEARS NOW THE POTENTIAL IS SLIM AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SO
THERE IS LITTLE HOPE THAT ANY RAIN WOULD REMAIN LIQUID ONCE IT
GETS NEAR THE SURFACE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS OCCLUSION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
DELTA JUNCTION WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH WED
EVE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AK RANGE. ALSO...TONIGHT WILL SEE
NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER HIGHWAY SUMMITS
WHICH MAY HANG ON INTO EARLY THU.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JL NOV 12