Flood and Heavy Rain in Alaska, May 25 to 27, 2012

Name: Flood and Heavy Rain in Alaska, May 25 to 27, 2012
Start: 2012-05-25T12:00
End: 2012-05-27T12:00
Location: Alaska

May 25 to 27, 2012 · NWS AFG · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

The first Heavy rain of the season fell across the Chena, Salcha, and Goodpaster River basins on May 25-26, 2012. 26 inches fell at the Goodpaster River gage in approximately 18 hours.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.

The first Heavy rain of the season fell across the Chena, Salcha, and Goodpaster River basins on May 25-26, 2012. Rainfall amounts of up to 1.26 inches fell at the Goodpaster River gage in approximately 18 hours. The combination of the heavy rainfall, runoff from residual high elevation snowpack, and frozen ground caused all three rivers to rise significantly. The crest of 20.6 feet at the Upper Chena River gage is the highest rainfall produced crest since July 2003.

Three canoers were swept by the high water onto an Island near milepost 29 Chena Hot Springs Road. In a separate incident, another group that was camping near milepost 37 Chena Hot Springs woke up to find that they were on an island in the middle of the River. No injuries were reported in either incident.

Along the Goodpaster River, minor flooding was reported at the Pogo Mine at 1900AKST on the 25th. Water flooded the airstrip and mine equipment yard.

Along the Salcha River, there was some water in the low spots around the campground at the Salcha River State Recreation Site. Water was covering the road at the exit of the parking area for the campground. The crest of 15.14 feet at the Salcha River at the Richardson Highway Bridge occurred at 0400AKST on the 27th and was just above the flood stage of 14 feet.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 4:02 AM AKST, 7 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 4:02 AM AKST, 7 hours 58 minutes before

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER WESTERN AK
TODAY. LOW NORTH OF 80 NORTH LATITUDE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO ABOUT
200 MILES NORTH OF BARROW 4PM SAT AND TO 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WRANGEL ISLAND 4AM MON. A VORTICITY MAX 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO KOTZEBUE 4PM TODAY AND TO UNALAKLEET
4AM SAT...THEN TO NEAR BETHEL 4PM SAT FORMING A TROUGH NORTH TO
THE ARCTIC LOW NORTH OF BARROW. VORTICITY CENTER 250 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS WILL MOVE FORT YUKON 1AM SAT WEAKENING.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ANCHORAGE TO YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO THE
ALASKA RANGE CREST 4PM FRI AND TO FAIRBANKS TO OLD CROW 10AM SAT.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH FROM NORTHWAY TO FORT YUKON TO TANANA TO
ANIAK WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN SOME...ON SUNDAY
THE PORTION OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER
TOUGH OVER WESTERN AK MOVES COOLER AIR IN. ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM
KAKTOVIK TO POINT LAY WILL SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO PRUDHOE BAY TO
POINT HOPE 4AM SUN. A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ANADYR SAT AM AND THEN
DRIFT SOUTHWEST.

MODELS...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO WET ON QPF FOR VORT MAX OVER SE
INTERIOR AS OF 12Z...GFS IS CLOSER TO CURRENT OBS. NAM AND GFS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCE IN MOVEMENT OF THE ARCTIC LOW AFTER 4PM
SUNDAY AND PREFER THE GFS IN KEEPING THE LOW A BIT NORTH OF THE
NAM POSITION. DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE
CLOSE IN HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WITH THE ARCTIC LOW AS WELL AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR...CURRENT RUNS DO SO ONLY SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAYS FORECAST FOR ERN 220 AND NRN
224. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN DROPPING THE ARCTIC LOW SOUTH OVER THE OUTER WEST
COAST WHILE MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MAINLAND
AK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM EACH MODEL ALSO INDICATE THIS.

NORTH SLOPE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL CAUSE SNOW OVER ZONES 203 204 AND 206...LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT EVENING. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SOME FLURRIES
EXPECTED ZONE 205 WITH ARCTIC FRONT NEARBY AND COOLING OF AIR
MASS. INCREASING CLOUDS WESTERN ZONES TODAY WITH VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTH OVER WESTERN AK. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT BUT WILL TURN NE
TODAY EXCEPT MAYBE 204 DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTING FROM
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVING NORTH OVER INTERIOR.

WESTERN ALASKA...SCATTERED PM SHOWERS OVER ZONES 227 AND WRN 215
AND 216 TODAY...SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVITY SAT AS OVERALL SLIGHT
COOLING OCCURS WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER AREA. COASTAL FOG
RECURRING EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...AS COASTAL WINDS PERSIST IN
BEING WESTERLY DUE TO THERMAL TROUGH IN INTERIOR. VORT MAX
DROPPING SOUTH OVER REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS
BEGINNING TODAY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VORTICITY CENTER SE OF FAIRBANKS
CREATING AN AREA OF RAIN OR FREQUENT SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTH TO
EAGLE AND WEST TO FAIRBANKS...THIS WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
AND EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH SLOWLY OVER ZONES
223 224 222...THOUGH WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH EXPECT PRECIP TO
LINGER AT LEAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING. GFS
ACCUMULATED QPF FOR UPPER SALCHA BASIN IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN AT 4PM TODAY..SO WOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT RISE ON SALCHA
RIVER OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WHERE CLOUD COVER IS LESS. ON SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ERN 220 AND NRN 224 NEAR REMNANTS
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
OR RED FLAG LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY VERY LIMITED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BUCKLAND ON THE BUCKLAND
RIVER. OTHERWISE QUIET CURRENTLY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY AKZ210.
&&

JL MAY 12

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Middle Tanana Valley

When: May 25, 12:00 PM AKST to May 27, 12:00 PM AKST
Where: Middle Tanana Valley County, 3.37 mi ESE of Two Rivers to 7.46 mi E of Two Rivers
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 64.857, -146.809

Flood, Deltana and Tanana

When: May 25, 6:00 PM AKST to May 26, 12:00 AM AKST
Where: Deltana and Tanana County, 38.13 mi NE of Big Delta to 38.2 mi NE of Big Delta
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 64.433, -144.933

What these are

Heavy Rain: Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, May 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 374484, 375052.