Winter Storm in Alaska, January 7 to 8, 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
444 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE FAR ERN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS SE AK THIS EVENING. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE NE TO THE SRN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN REACH THE COAST OF
SE AK SAT AFTERNOON. USED THE 12Z ECMWF AS ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
LOOKED GOOD...AND WANTED TO KEEP US CLOSE TO WFO PAFC ALONG THE
BORDER.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS...PTYPE...AND WINDS. THERE IS
SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THE FIRST OCCLUDED FRONT BUT IT WILL GET CUT
OFF AS FRONT MOVES INLAND BY APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. THINK THAT
THE COLDER AIR WILL ONLY AFFECT THE PAYA AREA THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE...REACHING THE MID-UPPER 30S MOST PLACES INLAND NEAR SEA
LEVEL AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT. TEMPS OVER THE FAR NRN AREA WILL JUMP FROM THE TEENS AND
20S THERE NOW TO THE MID 30S THIS EVENING ONCE FRONT MOVES THRU.
THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO GENERALLY BECOME MAINLY RAIN THIS EVENING
BEFORE A SHORT BREAK OCCURS AFTER FIRST FROPA. PAYA WILL PROBABLY
NOT CHANGE OVER THOUGH AS THE COLDER AIR SHOULD GET THERE BEHIND
THE FIRST FRONT. WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THE WS WARNING FOR PAYA AREA
TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM AS PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF AROUND THEN.

 PRECIP FROM THE STRONG FRONT SHOULD REACH THE OUTER COAST LATE
TONIGHT...AND THE REMAINING AREA SAT MORNING. MOST PLACES WILL
SEE RAIN AT PRECIP ONSET...ALTHOUGH THE PAJN-PAGS AREAS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT THE ONSET SAT MORNING. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NRN AREA WILL BE MAINLY SNOW THRU
SAT...WITH NEAR SEA LEVEL AREA THERE STARTING AS SNOW OR A MIX
THEN GOING TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON SNOW LEVEL AND
AMOUNT FORECAST...WILL BE ISSUING A WS WARNING FOR PAHN AND PAGY
ZONES ABOVE 600 FEET STARTING EARLY SAT MORNING. PAYA WILL
PROBABLY BE MIXED PRECIP AT ONSET AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
SHOULD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS SELY. THE HYDER AREA WILL BE BORDERLINE...WITH TEMPS
HANGING NEAR FREEZING...BUT EXPECT IF IT DOES STAY ALL SNOW THERE
IT WOULD BE FAIRLY WET AND LIMIT ACCUMS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER HEADLINES THERE.

 AS FOR WINDS...MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF WIND THIS EVENING AFTER
FROPA ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS...BUT THAT WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.
MAIN WIND EVENT WILL ARRIVE EARLY SAT MORNING ALONG THE SRN COAST
AND REACH THE CENTRAL AND SRN INNER CHANNELS LATER SAT MORNING.
WILL BE HEADLINING FOR STRONG WINDS FROM THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR
SWD ON SAT. THE SRN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS OVER
50 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE CENTRAL AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE. WILL HAVE GALES FOR ENTIRE GULF
WATERS AND MAINLY SRN INNER CHANNELS...WITH HIGH END SCA FOR THE
CENTRAL AREA.

 &&

.LONG TERM...FORECASTS SAT NIGHT AND BEYOND CONTINUE ON TRACK AND
SUPPORTED BY TODAYS MODEL RUNS. PREFERRED EC/UKMET/GFS SOLUTIONS
DUE TO GOOD OVERALL INITIALIZATIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FACT
THESE GLOBAL MODELS ARLEADY CAPTURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT SE
AK SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO BLEND IN
GUIDANCE FROM NATIONAL CENTER FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THROUGH TUES THEN DECREASES.

GENERALLY WSW-ENE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH PACIFIC AND
GULF OF ALASKA. SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WAVING THROUGH
PANHANDLE DURING MEDIUM RANGE FOR SEVERAL WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS
AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. BROAD FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
SW GULF THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CENTER SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE PREFERRED GLOBAL MODELS STEER THIS LOW TOWARD PRINCE
WM SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF LOW CENTER STAYS WEST OF
PANHANDLE...A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
MEAN WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATIONS RAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. COLDER AIR
WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER SWEEPS EASTWARD OVER GULF AND INLAND MID
TO LATE SUNDAY FOR NOTICEABLE COOLING NORTHERN 2/3 OF PANHANDLE.
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. TEMPORARY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH COLDER AIR SO WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO
DIMINISH BUT GIVEN W-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY SUN
NIGHT TO MON NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.

A DEVELOPING SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BY TUES IT IS FCST TO HEAD INTO AK
PENNINSULA AND A ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH ON ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SW STARTING TUES. HOWEVER...THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLDER AIR LOCKED OVER THE YUKON MAY CAUSE A PERIOD
OF COOL OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THAT FAVORS
OVER RUNNING SNOWS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK OR A DOWNSLOPING WINDS AFFECT
KEEPING THE PANHANDLE CLOUDY BUT DRY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ021-024.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025-029.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ022-023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018-
     019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-053.

&&

RWT/TA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1157 PM AKST FRI JAN 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
01/06/2012  M9.3 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            9.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
            FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

ABJ