Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Alabama, June 7 to 9, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

.AVIATION (07.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF IN
RESPONSE TO BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE SFC OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF...WHICH IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION OF THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW OVER TX
DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST GULF. TO THE EAST LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SOMEWHAT DRY COLUMN FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...
GIVING WAY TO BETTER HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN
AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. NEAR THE SFC OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST STILL LINGERS OVER LOWER PARTS OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING...PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME
DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT ANOTHER
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT INLAND SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO
LEAKESVILLE MS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND LIMITED FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT LESS CAPPING IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL TODAY
SUPPORTING THE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP LATER TODAY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK VERY MARGINAL THOUGH LIKE
ALWAYS WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY DURING MAX HEATING AND WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE SETS UP. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO BETTER
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH
TONIGHT. 32/EE

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH COVERAGE MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER INLAND. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE MARINE ZONES WHERE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO AROUND 60 PERCENT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE KEPT COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED FARTHER INLAND
BOTH DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE
TRENDED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGING WITH/BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARD THE EAST
COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO PERHAPS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
PATTERN MAY THEN DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT SE THEN S AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL GULF SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVING WAY TO BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALSO AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET BY LATE
SAT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  89  71 /  30  30  30  30
PENSACOLA   89  73  88  73 /  30  20  30  30
DESTIN      87  74  85  74 /  20  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   89  67  91  67 /  30  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  91  68  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
CAMDEN      91  67  91  67 /  10  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   91  68  92  68 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1045 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND ALONG AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FRONT LATER TODAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-081200-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1045 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALABAMA AND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH...SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CAUSING WAVES HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A MODERATE TO
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...IS ALSO
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.