Heat in Alabama, July 19, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1131 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/
COMPLICATED/UNCERTAIN WX PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THIS LATE MORNING. AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS VERY CAPPED AS
EVIDENCED BY VIS SAT IMAGERY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CNTRL HALF OF THE AREA
HAVE YET TO BREAK OUT OF THE 70S...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS TRYING TO
ERODE ACROSS NW AL AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE AL. TEMPS IN THESE
AREAS HAVE STARTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S...AND XPCT THIS TREND TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH.
CONVECTION THOUGH MAY HAVE A FAIRLY HARD TIME DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA FAIRLY
WORKED OVER...COUPLED WITH A LINGERING CAP IN PLACE. AIR MASS
RECOVERY THOUGH IS STILL GENERALLY XPCTED INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HRS
PROVIDED ENERGY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED IN AREAS WHERE HEATING IS
MORE ENHANCED. AFTERNOON HIGHS THOUGH HAVE BEEN LOWERED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR NOW...WITH THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINING FAIRLY CAPPED. SCT CU THOUGH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LATENT HEATING INCREASES. ANY
CIGS THOUGH ARE XPCTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR LEVELS INTO FRI. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS STILL XPCTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE FRI
MORNING. SCT/NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE XPCTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN EXACT TIMING OF ANY PRECIP...WILL GO
WITH A VCTS IN THE TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 15-16Z.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1122 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-201000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1122 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE THRESHOLDS...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...CONTINUING A LOW CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER...FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

KTW/DG