An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front moved through the area during the afternoon and evening hours of January 21st. The air mass ahead of the front was unstable and characterized by surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s with surface based CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front moved through the area during the afternoon and evening hours of January 21st. The air mass ahead of the front was unstable and characterized by surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s with surface based CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg. Mid level lapse rates were also relatively steep with values between 6.5 and 7.0 C/km as seen through the 00z January 22nd KTAE sounding. Effective shear was also analyzed at greater than 40 knots across a large portion of southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. These factors combined to produce several severe thunderstorms across southwestern Georgia, although southeast Alabama avoided the severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center placed parts of southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama under a tornado watch from 1230 pm EST until 8 pm EST. A few storms did develop across southeast Alabama and produced hail, but the hail was not reported large enough to be considered severe. A small area of Geneva county also saw heavy rainfall due to training storms across the area with minor flooding reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 21, 1:20 PM CST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 220 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2012 ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER GEORGIA COUNTIES AS WELL AS HENRY COUNTY IN SE AL... ...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS STORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF AL AND GA... ..ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR WEATHER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING... .SYNOPSIS... At 3 pm EST, a solid line of SW-NE oriented showers and thunderstorms was located across S/CNTRL AL and GA and approaching our nrn tier counties. AT UPPER LEVELS... the large scale progressive longwave pattern is highlighted in nrn stream by trough over PAC NW/CA, ridging ewd to ern plains and troughing ewd to ern seaboard. Srn stream with ridging from desert SW to LWR MS Valley...trough Ewd to Ern seaboard with axis from AL to Ern TN marked by significant drying/subsidence in its wake. H5 shortwave exiting ERN AL and translating newd towards Srn Appalachians while 90-kt jet streak sliding eastward along the Gulf Coast putting the forecast area in the favorable left exit region. Two days of SLY fetch has provided ample Gulf moisture. Despite largely SWLY unidirectional flow sfc-aloft, this combining with the DPVA ahead of the short wave to enhance lift over the area, bulk shear values increasing to 45 knots and CAPE to 1500 J/kg over much of AL into this evening provides a favorable environment for active storms. After this evening, vigorous trough will amplify rapidly from CA to NM into Sunday. in response, lead shortwave will slide ESE and reach Carolinas late tonight to off the s ATLC coast by 12z sun. there will be a brief period of upper level ridging over local region on Sunday. Then, this trough amplifies ewd becoming increasingly negatively tilted and along with H5/h2 jet reaches plains early Sunday then LWR ms valley and great lakes by sun eve before lifting into nrn great lakes during Mon. another shortwave is progged to move rapidly across CWA late Sunday or more likely early Monday just ahead of upper trough and lower level jet proceeding it. given speed of shortwave, window for strong convection is limited. some model differences in timing of shortwave and upper trough and this will impact timing of storms. either way, upper dynamics will drag next cold front across SE region. Until upper support lifts, it will provide increasing dynamics for another round of strong to possibly severe storms across NE Gulf region Sunday night into Mon morning (09Z-15Z looks best). after upper trough exits to NE during Monday, steering flow becomes zonal across SE region. AT LOWER LEVELS... During the mid aftn, a low was located over cntrl Appalachians with cold front aligned just ahead of upper trough and extending SWWD thru NE GA thru SE AL, wrn LA. Assocd solid line of tstms will continue to move SW-NE along front and just ahead of shortwave, while storms within the line moving ENE along it. 40-50 LLJ from cntrl gulf states newd across Carolinas beginning to wane. Further ahead of front, scattered convection moving SEWD around 25 mph noted as ample WAA persists in warm sector. As above initial short wave slide east-southeast into tonight, trailing frontal convection will gradually sag swd approaching SE AL/FL Panhandle. surface low will be centered on the Savannah River near the border of Upstate SC and northern GA tonight with weakening cold front extending southwest across central GA to near Mobile, AL. as upper support and low moves further ewd into ATLC beginning this eve, front stalls then begins to lifts nwd as quasi-stationary warm boundary. Meanwhile another low develops over MS Valley by Sunday night with warm front sagging swd to across n fl/GA border and a trailing cold front swwd into ern TX. A quick return to moderate southerly low level flow will transport abundant moisture northward across the SE Conus ahead of the system. With warm front in place, should dynamics line up on top of strong instability, the possibility of strong to severe weather exists late Sunday into Mon morning. Current SPC's day 2 convective outlook has the slight risk outlined just north and west of these zones. Low moves rapidly newd dragging this warm front Nwd and trailing cold front SEWD and across CWA by Monday night before stalling over or just south of our coastal waters by early Tuesday. With steering flow flow becoming zonal in wake of upper support, expect coldest air to remain well N of CWA through midweek. && .SHORT TERM (Rest of this Afternoon through Tuesday)... REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... Severe storms will continue to develop to our NW and then N while some sag SEWD towards our CWA. Latest radar pix and upstream obs show a decreasing confidence that severe storms will reach our CWA. Window for severe wx closing, shortwave should be east of CWA by 6 pm est with strong height rises in its wake. Also, the low level jet will be east of our area by 00-01Z with anti-cyclonic flow building in from the west. so its a timing battle between shortwave and convection band, namely, will convection drop into our CWA before shortwave exits. until then, moderately strong and deep uni- directional WSW flow imply potential for bowing with damaging winds. Less likely is threat for tornadoes, although models show potential for organized and rotating updrafts developing just northwest of our zones so cant rule out embedded vorticies generating isolated tornadoes mainly SE AL/adjacent GA where tornado watch is in effect until 8 pm est. Although latest SPC day 1 text less pessimistic for us, they still keep the northwest half of our forecast area, under a slight risk for severe storms. They continue to show 15% threat of damaging winds and 2-5% threat of tornadoes down to FL border into this eve. the potential to support severe thunderstorms elsewhere, especially along and south of the I-10 corridor appears very low. local severe weather confidence tool with at best 7% chance and only for NW most AL counties early. So if any severe weather occurs, the best chance will be over our nrn tier counties into this early evening after which shortwave and resulting synoptic forcing/shear profiles shift past our area. Will go with 50-0% NW-SE pop gradient with T+ for areas under tornado watch until 8 pm est. Tonight...After the severe threat ends, main forecast concern is dense fog potential. The cold front will be stalling over or just north of our AL/GA zones tonight, allowing a continued moist/ southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Current forecast dewpoints crossing the nearshore waters tonight are 2-5 degrees higher than the surface water temps. This is a good setup for advection fog to move ashore/spread inland. Combine this with an already favorable setup due to the general NVA/subsidence overhead in the wake of the shortwave, and dense fog is a very good bet and this reflected in all short term guidance. It should set in fairly early...by 03-05Z south of the I-10 corridor and expand quickly inland after midnight. dense fog advisories for both land and water a good bet. will go with 20-30% mainly late eve convection ahead of front. lows low-mid 50s inland, around 60 at coast. Sunday...Time-height cross sections show plenty of dry air in the mid levels in morning before moistening up later in the day. Fog will be slow to lift and most of the day will be cloudy with isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. 30-10% s-n pop gradient. Highs around 70 coast to mid 70s elsewhere. Sunday Night...Again a small chance of strong to isold severe storms late if upper/lower dynamics line up, mainly SW AL/SW GA. Local confidence tool with only 2% chance or less of severe wx...mainly NW most AL counties 00Z-06Z. 50-20% NW-SE POP gradient. Lows 55-60 inland...lows 60s at coast. Monday...30-10% W-E pop gradient with a small chance of morning strong to isold severe storms. Highs 70 to 75. Lows mid-upper 40s inland to near 60 at coast. Tuesday...AOB 20% chance of rain. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday night through next Saturday)...Both the 00z GFS and 12z Euro are in very good agreement in showing a strong cutoff low positioned along the U.S./Mexican border just west of Texas Tuesday afternoon. Both models show this feature wobbling over northern Mexico and Texas through the remainder of the week before weakening as it slides east along the northern Gulf coast Friday through Saturday. Although the EURO solution is slightly faster than the GFS, both models have slowed the eastward progression of this system and thus the timing of the next cold front to impact the local region. Due to the uncertainty, we will not make abrupt changes to this portion of the extended period at this time. Temps will continue above seasonal levels throughout the period. && .MARINE... Southerly winds will prevail through Monday along the western edge of surface high pressure. A weak front will pass over our coastal and offshore waters late on Monday allowing winds to shift to the north, and eventually to the east as high pressure builds in north of our area. Winds and seas are not expected to increase significantly with the passage of the front. At this time, no headlines are expected through mid-week. && .AVIATION (THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)... Periods of MVFR cigs will remain possible through the afternoon, although generally looking for longer periods of VFR into the early evening. There remains a threat for isolated severe storms around DHN and ABY through 00Z. Thunderstorm activity should diminish during the early evening, but will quickly be replaced by a potential widespread fog event. The fog potential appears quite high with an IFR or lower event at all terminals. The setup is favorable for early fog development for KECP and KTLH, possibly before 03-04Z, with fog rapidly spreading inland after midnight. Significant restrictions at IFR or lower are likely to linger through much Sunday morning. Have shown improvement back to MVFR at all terminals by midday, however it is possible that even this is on the optimistic side. && .FIRE WEATHER... Abundant low level moisture will continue to move north off the Gulf of Mexico. Relative humidity values are forecast to remain well above critical levels through Monday. Low mixing heights will result in unusually low daytime dispersion indices across the entire area for Sunday. A weak cold front will try to cross the forecast area Monday night with only marginally drier air arriving for Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 57 75 58 75 54 / 20 20 30 30 20 Panama City 60 73 63 72 57 / 30 30 50 30 20 Dothan 57 75 60 73 48 / 30 20 50 30 10 Albany 54 73 59 72 46 / 30 20 50 30 10 Valdosta 56 75 57 76 54 / 20 10 30 20 20 Cross City 52 77 54 76 58 / 20 10 20 10 20 Apalachicola 58 71 62 70 60 / 20 30 30 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && BLOCK/MROCZKA/DVD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 445 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-220300- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF- INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 445 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 /345 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM EST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND DROP OFF FROM THERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG FORMATION. FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE TALLAHASSEE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD POSSIBLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THIS SECOND ROUND OF FOG COULD DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. BARRY/WOOL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
539 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
ALZ065-066-212315-
COFFEE AL-DALE AL-
439 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST COFFEE
AND NORTHERN DALE COUNTIES...
* UNTIL 515 PM CST
AT 434 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRUNDIDGE...OR NEAR CLOWERS
CROSSROADS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN DALE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF ARITON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
LAT...LON 3162 8551 3161 8551 3145 8559 3154 8599
3163 8596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 279DEG 22KT 3163 8587
42-DVDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
GAZ122-124-212330-
TERRELL GA-RANDOLPH GA-
545 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN RANDOLPH AND
SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTIES...
* UNTIL 630 PM EST
AT 543 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DAWSON TO CUTHBERT...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM YEOMANS TO COLES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.
PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTHERN TERRELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN AND DAWSON...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR NORTHERN TERRELL
COUNTY.
RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3172 8429 3162 8430 3162 8458 3164 8458
3162 8460 3164 8460 3163 8462 3164 8465
3162 8466 3162 8470 3181 8491 3184 8455
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 295DEG 27KT 3180 8449 3176 8482
08-LAMERSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
614 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
GAZ125>128-220000-
TURNER GA-LEE GA-WORTH GA-DOUGHERTY GA-
614 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DOUGHERTY...LEE...
TURNER AND WORTH COUNTIES...
* UNTIL 700 PM EST
AT 611 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEESBURG TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MORGAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOSSY DELL TO
OAK HILL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
PEOPLE IN DOUGHERTY...NORTHERN WORTH...SOUTHERN LEE AND WESTERN
TURNER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LEESBURG...ALBANY...TURNER
CITY...EAST ALBANY...PUTNEY AND SYLVESTER...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN BLOW DOWN SOME TREE BRANCHES OR WEAKER TREES.
RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3172 8359 3149 8383 3144 8433 3155 8445
3159 8446 3162 8444 3162 8430 3170 8430
3175 8429 3180 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 292DEG 29KT 3175 8408 3162 8447
08-LAMERSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 hail, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail the size of erasures was reported to Dale county dispatch near 231 Roy Parker Road.
Law enforcement reported significant ponding of water on roads around Slocomb, but roads remained passable and no road closures occurred. Radar showed an area of training thunderstorms with rainfall estimates of 3 to 5 inches occurring in and around Slocomb in just a few hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, January 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 354611, 354617.