Heat in Wisconsin, June 7, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR TODAY...SO THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. NAM AND CONTINUES TO SHOW 925 MB TEMPERATURES
OF 27-29C. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID 90S MOST PLACES...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 90S. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY
MIX OUT A BIT AGAIN DUE TO LAPSE RATES OF 10 C/KG BELOW 850
MB...RESULTING IN DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S.  HEAT
INDICIES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. WITH HEAT INDICIES PUSHING
100 AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 95 MANY PLACES...WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.  DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY.

NAM SHOWS CAP OF AROUND 90 J/KG AND WITH WEAK FORCING DO NOT EXPECT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OR THIS EVENING.  GFS INDICATES LITTLE
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL TONIGHT...BUT NAM SAGS A BOUNDARY FROM DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION THAT SHOULD OCCUR TO THE NORTH DOWN INTO AT LEAST
NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WEAK NORTHWEST CORFIDI
VECTORS INTO THIS EVENING EVENING.  WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOME AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON TO NEAR FOND DU LAC.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE AREA ON
30-40 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 MILLIBAR WIND REGIME. 925 TEMPS FROM THE
NAM/ECMWF SHOW 26-27C NOSING INTO THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA. TEMPS INTO
THE 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LEFTOVER CONVECTION
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MAY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BUT MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS ON THIS. MAIN STORY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. MAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPRESSIVE ML CAPE OF 3000-3500
J/KG...LI/S TO -11...25-30 KNOTS 0-1KM SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8C ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS. THE 0-6KM SHEAR NOT QUITE
TO THE 40 KNOT MARK...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS. MAIN 500 MILLIBAR
SHORTWAVE TREKS TO THE NORTH...THOUGH 250 MILLIBAR RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT POSITION SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FROPA.
SURFACE/925 FRONT ARRIVES TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND HAS TEETH TO IT.
WINDS SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 MILLIBAR FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE KEY AS THIS BOUNDARY PROGGD TO
GET HUNG UP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BORDER TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. 925 TEMPS ARE ESSENTIALLY CUT IN HALF
FROM WEDNESDAY AND WITH NE TRAJECTORIES...A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TAP.
NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW A
DECENT RAMP UP OF 850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER WITH THIS SIGNAL AND THE CANADIAN CONFINES THE BULK OF IT TO
THE SOUTHERN CWA. ELEVATED CAPE FROM NAM BUFKIT SHOWS UP TO 1000
J/KG. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS AT THIS
POINT.

FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
NEGATIVE TILT WAVE APPROACHES WITH HINTING OF JET COUPLING. 850
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE FOCUS WITH SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS REALLY DOES NOTHING WITH IT AT
ALL...KEEPING THE FOCUS WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS A QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. IF THE OUTLIER
CANADIAN SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING RIGHT...SOME CONCERN FOR PRECIP
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY AND
KEEP DRY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW
ECWMF DEVELOPING LIGHT QPF WITH A WEAK RIDGE RIDER. THE GFS HAS AN
OVERBLOWN VORT WITH NO QPF. BOTH MODELS KEEP RETURN LLJ TO THE WEST
SO THE DRIER GFS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW AREAS.

WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT MAY SAG
BACK SOUTH LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH.  ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY CAPPED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL UNTIL TONIGHT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
IF THEY DO INDEED DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INLAND...BUT INVERSIONS OVER
THE COOL WATERS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-080845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LONE ROCK...TO MADISON...TO FOND DU LAC LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RISE TO AROUND 95 AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NEAR THE ILLINOIS
BORDER...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND CHANCES LINGERING ON FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME...LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-080845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON. THE DENSE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THUS...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF NORTH
POINT LIGHTHOUSE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...AND CHANCES LINGERING ON FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME...LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX