Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 7, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SOME WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH MAKES THE TRAJECTORY NOW INTO THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE
COUNTIES INCLUDING NWRN PA THIS MORNING. LAKE IS STABLE BUT GIVEN
TIME OF DAY BELIEVE INFLOW IS OFF THE SURFACE ANYWAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
INTACT. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EAST OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY FOR
THE MORNING. SOME STORMS CONTAIN HAIL SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THEY COME ONSHORE.

PREVIOUS...MCS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ERIE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING NWRN PA. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
CONVECTION REACHES THE ERIE COUNTY SHORELINE AROUND 7AM. BASED ON
THIS TIMING WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE
REGION. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST HALF AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE
POPS SUGGESTS IT WILL NOT RAIN TODAY AND FOR MOST AREAS THAT IS
PROBABLY CORRECT...HOWEVER AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON FORECAST CAPES GET AS HIGH AS 5000
J/KG IN THE EAST TODAY AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK. WANT
TO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. YDAS TEMP
GUIDANCE WAS ON AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES TO LOW. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM YDA TO TODAY BY 2C ON AVERAGE SO FEEL WE COULD EQUAL OR
BETTER YDAS TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES (F). HAVE INCREASED MOS
GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE CAPPED AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH
FLATTENED A BIT AND HEIGHTS DROP ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 20-22C DOWN TO 16-18C SO THINK WE WILL DROP BACK TO THE
80S FOR THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE CLOUDS AS WELL AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE IN
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE NAM PRESSURE FIELD SUGGESTS
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. STILL LIKE AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF...AND WITH
THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FRIDAY. LI'S -8 TO -10 AND AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WE COULD SEE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO HOWEVER BEST CHANCE WOULD
LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. BY FRIDAY TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THIS
FEATURE AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN THIS
WILL PROBABLY BRING A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY STILL HEADING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE EAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION CHC OF PCPN
AT A FEW OF THE NE TAF SITES KCLE...KERI...KYNG AND KCAK THIS
MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. I MENTIONED JUST VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 TO 12 KNOTS...BUT HIGHER GUSTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOK FOR MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE JUST STRONG TO HOLD OFF A TRUE LAKE BREEZE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THE FLOW TO
NORTHWEST FRI MORNING THEN NORTH AND THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS.
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LEZ142>145-162>165-OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-081030-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
623 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-146>149-166>169-OHZ011>014-021>023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-
081030-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-
GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-STARK-MAHONING-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
623 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE LARGEST THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

OHZ010>014-023-089-PAZ001>003-071245-
LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
640 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

AT 645 AM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. THESE STORMS AREA MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 30 TO 40
MPH...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS..DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND DOWNPOURS HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND
LOW LAND FLOODING.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...PLEASE SEEK SHELTER.

END/COMEAUX