A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the Tennessee Valley and a cold front passing through the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands caused high winds on the 12th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the Tennessee Valley and a cold front passing through the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands caused high winds on the 12th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 3:11 AM EST, 7 hours 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
311 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROF AXIS CROSSING GRTLKS ATTM. CLDNS ENTERING MTNS...AND WL REACH
WRN CNTYS PRIOR TO SUNUP. ASSOC RDR RTNS IN WRN PA/ERN OH/NRN WV.
DONT QUITE THINK THAT/LL REACH CWFA...BUT DO FEEL WL HV AN UPSLP
SHSN PSBLTY DURING/AFTR S/WV PASSAGE. GOING GRIDS HNDL THAT WELL...
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS. SINCE LERI FRZN AND MSTR VRY LMTD /DEWPTS
IN THE SGL DIGITS/...SNW ACCUMS AOB AN INCH...FALLING MAINLY DURING
THE MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.
TROF SHUD REACH ERN SHR BY 16Z. MEAN LYR MIXING IMPVS DRAMATICALLY
IN NW FLOW...W/ MOMENTUM XFR SUGGESTING GUSTS MAY REACH 30 KT IN THE
CSTL PLAIN...PERHAPS A LTL HIER ACRS THE RDGS. PLAYED IT SAFE AND
WENT A LTL LWR THAN THAT. EVEN WORST CASE WUD BE BLO ADVY CRIT...THO
NOT BY MUCH. HWVR ITS ASSESSED IT/LL BE A BRZY AFTN...AND THAT
FLAVOR CAPTURED BY FCST.
TEMPS WL BE A LTL TRICKY AS CAA WL BE OFFSET BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. VARIATIONS NOTED IN 00Z MOS CYCLE YDA STILL PRESENT IN 00Z
CYCLE TDA. ON 1ST LOOK...MET CAPTURES EFFECT OF AT LEAST SOME CAA VS
YDA OBSVD MAXT. HWVR...YDA/S OBSVD MAXT AVGD 3-6 DEGF ABV GDNC.
SO... WENT ON WARM END TDA. BASED FCST ON PRVS GRIDS AND SHAVED A
DEG OR TWO OFF...WHICH OFFERS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FM MAV MOS.
RDGG QUICKLY BLDS TNGT...WHICH WL ASSIST IN REDUCING WNDS. BUT...H8
TEMPS REBOUND AS WELL...AND THE SUBSEQUENT WAA WL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO SUPPORT MID DECK CLDS. FEW IF ANY CHGS REQD TO GOING GRIDS.
KEEPING MOCLDY SKYCVR OVNGT...AND WENT ON WARM SIDE OF MIN-T AS A
RSLT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GULF COAST WHILE A POTENT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY AND
MILDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 30S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KNOTS ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OFFSET
BY A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE 30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE
MIDDLE 50S IN WASHINGTON AND EVEN THE LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND MAY TRIGGER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROF AXIS WL CROSS TERMINALS THIS MRNG. ONLY CLDS XPCTD WL BE MID
DECK...W/ NO IMPACT XPCTD. HWVR...WNDS BHD TROF LKLY WL HV AN
IMPACT...AS NW FLOW WL SUPPORT SUSTAINED CLS TO 20 KT...AND GUSTS
THAT MAY REACH 30 KT. TAFS A TOUCH UNDER THAT...BUT ONLY BY A CPL
KT.
RDGG BLDS TNGT WHICH WL RAPIDLY SQUELCH WNDS. MID DECK CLDS WL INCR
SOON THRAFTR AS MID LVL FLOW BACKS SLGTLY SWLY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS MONDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TROF AXIS CROSSES WATERS NEAR MIDDAY. MEAN MIXED LYR WNDS BHD TROF
WL EASILY SUPPORT 20 KT...W/ MOST GDNC SUGGESTING CLS TO 30 KT PSBL.
HWVR...WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...WHICH WL CREATE AN INVSN
THAT WL IMPEDE FULL MIXING REACHING THE SFC. GOING SCA SEEMS ON
TARGET. GUSTS IN GRIDS 20-25 KT...ENDING ELY THIS EVNG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH
THE WATERS MONDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE WARRANTED FOR THE WATERS MONDAY AND A GALE WARNING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
FREQUENTLY OVER 35 MPH DURING THIS TIME. FUEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE LOW IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT RH
VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO
SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.
WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE AGENCIES ON FUEL MOISTURE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLOSER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530-535-536-538-542.
&&
SYNOPSIS...LASORSA
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...LASORSA
LONG TERM...LASORSA
AVIATION...HTS/LASORSA
MARINE...HTS/LASORSA
FIRE WEATHER...LASORSAHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 922 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2011 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 131030- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 922 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS EVENING FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND INCLUDING ITS EASTERN INLETS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE WARRANTED FOR THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES MONDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-131030- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 922 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gusts of 65 mph were reported near Brushy Run.
Wind gusts up to 65 mph were estimated across western Pendleton County.
Wind gusts up to 65 mph were estimated across western Grant County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in West Virginia in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in West Virginia, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 286192, 286193, 286194.