Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, June 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANY EXISTING CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA ACROSS DE SOUTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST PA. A BREAK IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIKELY ALONG A LEE-SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FEATURE PRESENTLY BISECTING VA FROM NE TO SW...WHERE THE
SKY HAS ALSO BEEN MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS ALLOWING
FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...AND SPC
HAS UPGRADED MOST OF THE AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
PW ON THE 12Z KWAL SOUNDING WAS 1.7 IN...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PW VALUES COULD APPROACH 2 IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS
COMBINED WITH A WEAK WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAIN IN ANY STORMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AXIS OF HIEST PW WTRS (GENLY FM 2-2.25") GRDLY SHIFTS TO THE ESE
TNGT AS CDFNT SLOLY PRESSES TWD THE CST. XPCTG AXIS OF SHRAS/TSRAS
(FOR NOW POPS MNLY 40-50%) TO SHIFT INTO ERN/SE VA AND NE NC AS IT
DOES...WHL DRYING BEGINS (LT AT NGT) ACRS THE NW PORTION OF FA. WL
CONT TO HV PTNTL FOR MOD/HVY RA FM STMS DUE TO RELATIVELY SLO
MVG/VRY MOIST ATMOS/PTNTL FOR TRAINING OF STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE
U60S NW TO M70S SE.

GFS SLOER IN PUSHES FNT ENTIRELY E AND S OF FA ERY WED. WL CONT W/
IDEA OF ISLTD/SCT POPS IN THE (ERY/MID) MRNG HRS SE VA/NE NC...WHL
DRYING CONTS OVR REST OF FA. BY AFTN HRS...MUCH OF THE AREA WL HV
MUCH DRIER CONDS AND CLRG SKY...HWVR WL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC POPS ACRS
CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO M/U80S
INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO/OVR THE FA WED NGT THROUGH THU...PRVDG
GENLY SKC AND VRY COMFY WX TO CLS OUT THE MONTH OF JUNE. LO TEMPS
WED NGT FM THE M/U50S FOR MOST INLAND PLCS TO THE 60S IN THE URBAN
AREAS AND RIGHT ALG THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FORECAST RATIONALE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
UPPER LVL LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS BUILDING EAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO ERY NEXT WEEK.

GENERALLY BENIGN/DRY CONDITIONS THU NGT-SAT COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING (MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN) RAIN CHCS BY SUN/MON AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST W/
RESULTANT SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO BECOME S-SW OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGHEST RAINFALL CHCS FOR THE PERIOD LOOKS TO COME ON SUNDAY W/GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOPING A LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...WHICH
COULD WELL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TYPICAL SCT AFTN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN/EVE AND ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING NR/JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. LOOK FOR
MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND...COOLER M-U 80S AT
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZNS. EARLY MORNING LOWS TO GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AM...ESPECIALLY OVER
E/SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL YESTERDAY. EXPECT
PATCHY DENSER (IFR) FOG THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN AREAS...MOST LIKELY
TO AFFECT KSBY WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY FARTHER S. FOR KECG AND KPHF...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...
AS THE DENSER UPPER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL MOST LIKELY PRECLUDE
IFR VSBYS.

SW WNDS AND WARM MOIST AIR WILL PROVIDE CHC FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...MAINLY FROM THE LATE AFTN
INTO EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEFLY LOWERING
AVIATION CONDITIONS. VFR/DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...
WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT S/SW FLOW (10 KTS OR LESS). A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED. THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WL ALLOW FOR MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN THE LATEST
SHORT RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW THEN
N...WITH THE SHALLOW OVER-WATER INSTBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
MARGINAL/BRIEF SURGE (PSBL SCA CONDITIONS) OVER CHES BAY EARLY WED
MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE NAM MODEL REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS OVER
CHES BAY. SO...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO CAP WINDS AT 15 KTS ACROSS
THE BAY (I.E. NO HEADLINES)... HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION FOR POTENTIAL SCA HIGHLIGHTS. BOATING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE TRANQUIL BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...BKH
MARINE...BKH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-290745-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
333 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTEROON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAY CONTAIN STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-290745-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
333 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

VAZ088-089-092-093-281915-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
243 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH SUSSEX COUNTY.

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WAKEFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WAKEFIELD AT 250 PM EDT...BOOTH
FORK AT 255 PM EDT...DENDRON AT 300 PM EDT...ELLIS FORK AT 305 PM
EDT...RUNNYMEDE...AND...ELBERON AT 310 PM EDT...DELK CROSSROADS AT
315 PM EDT.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF
YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3675 7729 3698 7739 3720 7678 3692 7666

SCALORA