High Wind in Texas, November 26, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

...VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY...

.AVIATION...
TWO CHALLENGES OF CONCERN TODAY...THE FIRST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR LAYERS FROM CLOVIS EAST TO NEAR CHILDRESS
AND THE SECOND AND MORE PROLONGED THREAT IS THAT OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BEHAVIOR OF MVFR CIGS IS SUCH
THAT THEY QUICKLY TREND VFR AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY CARRY A TEMPO GROUP AT LBB THIS MORNING. CDS
HAS ALREADY RISEN TO VFR LAYERS IN THIS DRIER AIR.

GREATEST AVIATION HAZARD IS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING. THUS FAR WE HAVE LITTLE
REASON TO DOUBT THE FEW MODELS INDICATING SUCH HIGH WINDS AS 50
KNOTS WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE LBB WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE A
MERE 1K FEET AGL. ONCE MIXING LAYERS DEEPEN AROUND 15Z...EXPECT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO APPROACH 50 KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
RESIDING BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. AN AIRPORT WX WARNING FOR HIGH
WINDS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR LBB STARTING ~15Z. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE AS SEVERE AS WITH A WESTERLY WIND EVENT...BUT TEMPO
5SM APPEARS REASONABLE AT LBB. EXPECT WINDS AND STRONG GUSTS TO
QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CONUS WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHWARD FROM NERN COLORADO
AND INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY SENDING
A POLAR FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA
BY MID-MORNING. OF GREATER INTEREST IS A STRONG HEIGHT GRADIENT
TAKING AIM ON MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY RESULTING IN
NEARLY 100 KNOTS AND 50-60 KNOTS AT 500MB AND 700MB RESPECTIVELY.

DEEP SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FOSTER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING TO THE TUNE OF SINGLE-DIGIT DEWPOINTS ON
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE
STUNTED 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RISING TO 40
DEG SHOULD ONLY AID IN DEEPER DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND HIGHER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER TIME. CONSIDERING THE MID-LEVEL JET CORE
WILL RESIDE NEAR/JUST WEST OF I-27 AND MAX PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED...WE FEEL A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN ORDER FOR MUCH
OF THE CAPROCK WITH A WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH OUR LOCAL
HIGH WIND CHECKLIST FALLS A BIT SHORT OF SOLID HIGH WIND
CRITERIA...THIS PATTERN OF CAA AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH SHARP LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF
A LOW-END HIGH WIND WARNING SCENARIO. IF THE RUC AND GFS ARE
CORRECT...THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AREA WIDE
THIS MORNING. THE MEMPHIS WTM SITE IS ALREADY ATTEMPTING TO CRASH
THIS PARTY WITH A RECENT GUST TO 55 MPH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
SUCH A WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED HIGH WIND THREAT AREA IS NOT
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER FORECASTS WILL REVISIT
THIS POTENTIAL.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE CAPROCK TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS THAN IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. EXPECT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ON THE CAPROCK TO GARNER SOME OF
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY QUIET COMPARED
WITH ISSUES FOR TODAY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AT OR A TICK UNDER NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY AS DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE HELP
TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY FOR
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BUMPING WIND SPEEDS UP INTO THE BREEZY
RANGE. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
AS WE ARE EXPECTING FOR TODAY. SIMILAR CYCLE WILL THEN ENSUE WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A DAY.

STILL ARE SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND THE END OF THIS FORECAST. ALL MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. GFS IS A FULL DAY FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND
BRINGS A PRETTY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS AND RAPIDLY MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW AND RAPIDLY PULLS IN GULF
MOISTURE. GFS KEEPS THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION EVEN WITH THE
ADVANCING LOW HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL HOLD OFF MAKING
CHANGES TO THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS
SETTLE DOWN A BIT AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME PRETTY CHILLY DAYS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT FULLY SUPPORTIVE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. WE
HAVE INSTEAD ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT PERIODS
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
AROUND 15-20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  22  57  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  24  58  31  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  24  58  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  24  59  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  26  59  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  59  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  26  60  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  30  57  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  27  59  34  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  30  58  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ025-026-031-032-037>044.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036.

&&

93/14/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

TXZ021>044-271200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
600 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH IN SOME PLACES. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH 6 PM. ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
729 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW TURKEY            34.38N 100.93W
11/26/2011  M58 MPH          HALL               TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100251

93