Wildfire in Texas, May 25 to 26, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
322 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CHURNING IN THE PLAINS CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS STILL STRONG AND WINDS CONTINUED TO BE THE BIG STORY
OVER THE AREA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF LATE TODAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

ONLY A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED SINCE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES LATER IN THE DAY. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY AND
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS IN RECENT DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS SHOULD SEND COOLER AIR INTO THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT LOW.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FOR THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STRENGTHEN
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL EASILY REACH WELL INTO THE 90S AS DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
AREAS OF THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP
THOSE AREAS DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
PATTERN WHERE THERE COULD BE A MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES IF STORMS DO FIRE WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                47  81  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  46  82  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  81  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  52  82  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              48  85  54  90  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  46  83  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  80  57  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 45  84  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  45  82  54  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                47  84  55  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                47  80  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   49  79  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                50  80  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              53  81  61  94  63 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

&&

21/20/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1049 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-260400-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1049 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON THROUGH THIS EVENING.