Wildfire in Texas, May 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL PLAINS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE HE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

UPDATE...
CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY. REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING. TIGHT GRADIENT AND WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH...H7 HEIGHT GRADIENT OF 80-90
M/200 MI ALONG WITH H7 WINDS OF 50 KT SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR BEAVER AND TEXAS COUNTIES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS ACROSS THESE COUNTIES ALSO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT THE STRONGEST H7
GRADIENT AND H7 WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THESE COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 3 PM...STRONGEST H7 WINDS WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD SO THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE ALLOWED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY AND REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. SPEAKING OF THE
WIND ADVISORY...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
AND MAY BRIEFLY HIT HIGH WIND WARNING IN ISOLATED AREAS. HOWEVER...ELECTED
TO KEEP THE STRUCTURE OF THE WIND ADVISORY IN TACT FOR NOW. WINDS MAY
BE SLOWER TO FALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE KEPT LONGER THAN THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
STILL...EVEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY AS UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

REMOVED POPS TODAY AS ISENTROPIC DESCENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
RADAR RETURNS HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SKY
COVER WAS ALSO TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE WINDS...AS
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CORE OF 700 MB WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER
LOW WILL CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED AT THE GUY TAF SITE. THESE NW/N WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS WITH GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS
AT THE GUY TAF SITE. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE JUST SHY OF AWW CRITERIA
OF 40 KNOTS AT AMA...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 01Z TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL OFFER SUPPORT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN
PLACE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MUCH TAMER WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AS LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN AS ZONAL FLOW INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROF.

WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY PRODUCES TEMPORARY NORTHEAST AND EAST
WINDS.  BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT LEE TROF...WITH INCREASING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO EASTERN ZONES
WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  NO POPS IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AS DRY
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

&&

21/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1049 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-260400-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1049 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON THROUGH THIS EVENING.