The dryline brought elevated to critical fire weather conditions west of a line from Abilene to San Angelo.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
The dryline brought elevated to critical fire weather conditions west of a line from Abilene to San Angelo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 2:56 PM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 356 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011 .SHORT TERM... DRYLINE FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. CAPE VALUES RUNNING ROUGHLY AROUND 1200 TO 1400 J/KG...WITH A BIT OF A CAP STILL TO OVERCOME. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS GREATEST. GFS HAS VASTLY OVERESTIMATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS...CHANCES FOR A STORM SEEM AWFULLY SMALL. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR NOW. SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTS TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN WEST TOWARDS MORNING...SO MOISTURE DEPTH ITSELF WILL BE SMALL. THUS...DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD. WILL MENTION A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND EASTERN BIG COUNTRY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...BUT THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. .LONG TERM... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS TEXAS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROF ACROSS THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CWFA. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...STEEP MID AND UPPER LAPSE RATES AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL AVERAGE 40-50 KNOTS AND SBCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE MCS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO...WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RRQ OF THE 300 MB JET. FRIDAY...MAY BE LESS COVERAGE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...A LEAST ISOLD STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY RETURNS BY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED...HOWEVER MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. WITH KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND THEN MAINLY A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO PERHAPS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...BEHIND WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP EVERY AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY...DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SURGE EAST WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE ON REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...SO WILL HOLD OF ON ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 67 92 66 91 68 / 10 10 20 20 30 SAN ANGELO 69 95 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 20 20 JUNCTION 67 89 73 89 73 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 07/21
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 208 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-181915- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 208 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY THE EXACT THREATS...EXPECT AT LEAST DEADLY LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO STERLING CITY LINE. IN THESE AREAS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY FALLING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PREVENT ACCIDENTAL FIRES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Price Fire began in western Sterling County and burned mesquite, grass and brush. One home and dozens of pump jacks were saved. Three heavy air tankers responded to the fire. The fire was declared controlled on May 20. The cause was unknown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 315947.