Hail in South Carolina, May 17, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
AND THEN EAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTN. ONE
HAS MOVED NWD INTO SRN VA WHILE THE SECOND IS CROSSING N GA. THE SRN
LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC THIS EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN UPSTATE TO THE SRN NC PIEDMONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THIS AFTN. THE
FORCING WILL PIVOT EAST/WEST THROUGH 21Z AND SLIP GRADUALLY NWD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A MINOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING FROM LAKE
LURE TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THE
OTHER AREA OF PRECIP THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN WILL BE
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT
ROTATES IN. SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS IN
THE UPPER CSRA AND SRN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTN...THEN THE ERN
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER QG FORCING
WILL LINGER MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT.
SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK A TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ABOVE 5K FT...BUT MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

THE DEEP LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NWD THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS ON
WED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND NRN
TIER...BUT COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED CLOUDS AND COOL THICKNESSES WILL KEEP
MAXES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED INVOF
WV AND DRIFTING NORTH WED NGT...THEN WILL TURN RIGHT AND DRIFT EAST
BY LATE THU. HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE FA
GENERALLY DRY...BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER BOTH THU AND
FRI. A WEAK PRES FIELD IN THE LLVLS WILL EXIST AS SFC OCCLUDED LOW
DISSIPATES TO OUR NORTH. FCST SNDGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND LTL INSTBY. DECIDED TO KEEP FCST DRY. TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL THU AND A COUPLE CATEGORIES WARMER FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS
PROGRESSION...NOT BRINGING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE NON-ECM CONSENSUS. IN ANY
CASE...TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEKEND...TOPPING
OUT NEAR 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AND VERY STRONG INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTBY
EACH AFTN...WITH MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEING MTN-TOP
CONVERGENCE. HAVE DIURNALLY TRENDED CHC POPS FAVORING THE NC MTNS
FROM SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN AROUND KCLT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FRONTOGENESIS PIVOTS E/W ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z WHEN
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. DEVELOP TSRA SHOULD
PASS MAINLY SE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST MVFR VSBY LOOKS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
HOWEVER...MOS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A RETURN TO MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PICKING UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROM KAVL TO KHKY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FORCING
PIVOTS E/W AND SLIPS NWD. SHOWERS FROM KGMU TO KGSP WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING. KAND WILL SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AS THE UPPER COLD POOL SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTH.
WILL FEATURE CB CLOUD TYPE THERE FOR NOW. MVFR WILL HOLD ON THE
LONGEST FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH KAVL EXPECTED TO REACH IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE THEN
POSSIBLY WSW OR SW WED MORNING.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE LATE WED THROUGH THU.
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FROM KAVL TO KHKY. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FRI AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MTNS EACH DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-SCZ004>014-019-181900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND SMALL
HAIL. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SECTIONS...MAINLY FROM ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD TO CHESTER...AS WELL
AS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510-
SCZ001>003-181900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
05/17/2011  E0.25 INCH       STEPHENS           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA-SIZED HAIL IN WALMART PARKING LOT.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

GAZ028-029-172100-
ELBERT-HART-
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN
HART COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NUBERG...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF ELBERTON...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN HART COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATION...

NUBERG...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3430 8301 3436 8283 3436 8281 3418 8274
      3418 8292

NED