Afternoon thunderstorms developed over the Rolling Plains along residual outflow boundaries from thunderstorms early in the morning. One of these storms produced severe wind gusts near Paducah (Cottle County).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Afternoon thunderstorms developed over the Rolling Plains along residual outflow boundaries from thunderstorms early in the morning. One of these storms produced severe wind gusts near Paducah (Cottle County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:10 PM CST, 1 hour earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011 .SHORT TERM... UA RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION CONTINUED TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND THUS WILL BE THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVER NIGHT ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS /PWATS AOA 1.20/...AS NOTED PER 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE AMPLIFYING UA RIDGE HAS INDUCED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHT FIELDS...HOWEVER TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S /ON THE CAPROCK/ TO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE TEMPS /OFF THE CAPROCK/...WHICH SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASED WATER VAPOR/MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS ACROSS THE CWA/ IS COMPRABLE TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THUS DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S /WHICH SIGNIFIES THE PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME/ IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT THAT IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. IT IS THIS SAID MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY BE A FOCUS FOR CI. IN FACT...RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...CIN CLOSE TO NIL AND PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE AOA 700 J/KG. NO STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS OF YET...AS LAPS GUIDANCE DISPLAYED SFC-BASED CAPE TO BE LOWEST THERE. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. THE MEAN WIND ALOFT IS NOT VERY FAST AND THUS SOME STORMS WILL PROGRESS RATHER SLOWLY. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. TONIGHT...THE LLJ WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY /15 TO 20 KTS/ AND COULD AID TO SUSTAIN STORMS. THE GFS HINTS AT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING CLOSE TO SUNRISE...WHEREAS THE NAM DEPICTS A DWINDLING SIGNAL OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT THE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA...WILL INDUCE 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AOA 30 DEGREES CELSIUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE AND IN RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC DRYING WILL ENSUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAYED AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN PWATS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SFC-BASED CAPE DECREASING TO AOA 300 J/KG. ALBEIT...THE NAM SOLUTION IS THE MOST BULLISH IN DEPICTING QPF VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...COINCIDING WITH UPSLOPE SFC WINDS...THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS AND HENCE THE LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME. OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN 10-12 PERCENT POPS WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP ATTM. && .LONG TERM... FEW CHANGES AS THE FOUR-CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST SOLUTIONS DONT APPEAR TO GIVE MORE THAN A GLIMMER OF HOPE EITHER FOR NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDER CHANCES MID WEEK...OR CENTRAL PLAINS FRONT EDGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. STILL...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MOIST AND WE CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE OVERNIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEK. BUT IN GENERAL...THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED WITH FAIRLY HOT TEMPERATURES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING A VERY SLIGHT UPWARDS TENDENCY MID TO LATE WEEK...SO WE NUDGED UPWARDS A DEGREE HERE AND THERE. THE MONSOON FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL KICK IN STRONGLY LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE FLOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST. SO THERE STILL IS NO OBVIOUS HOPE IN BREAKING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE COMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MONSOON GIVES A HOPEFUL SIGN. PERHAPS IT CAN NUDGE FURTHER EAST JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 64 97 65 97 65 / 10 10 10 0 0 TULIA 68 98 67 99 67 / 10 10 10 0 0 PLAINVIEW 71 97 67 98 67 / 10 10 10 0 0 LEVELLAND 68 98 68 98 67 / 10 10 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 71 98 71 99 71 / 10 10 10 0 0 DENVER CITY 69 97 67 98 67 / 10 10 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 69 98 68 98 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 73 104 75 103 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 SPUR 70 100 72 101 72 / 10 10 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 76 103 74 103 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 29/05
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 533 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011 TXZ021>044-041045- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 533 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011 TXZ031-032-032130- COTTLE-MOTLEY- 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTLE AND MOTLEY COUNTIES... AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MOTLEY COUNTY...EAST OF MATADOR AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COTTLE COUNTY...AFFECTING THE CITIES OF DELWIN AND PADUCAH. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:11 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Paducah, TX measured severe wind gusts for ten minutes. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 320853.