Dense Fog in Texas, December 11, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KLBB EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MIDDAY WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CEILING
AND VISIBILITIES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE...WITH
INITIAL TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...THOUGH FAVORED THE
MOST RECENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FREEZING. SHOWERS SHOULD
EXPAND INTO KCDS AS WELL BY 08Z TO 10Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH DROP OF
MVFR CIGS AT THAT TIME TOWARDS IFR LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES WERE RAPIDLY DROPPING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE CAPROCK
LATE THIS EVENING...IN SOME CASES TO NEAR ZERO. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING TO MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MORNING STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS FAIRLY SOLID BOTH AT KCDS AND KLBB TO START
OUT THE NEW TAF PERIOD...IN SPITE OF BULK OF SOLUTIONS FAVORING AN
AFTERNOON BREAK. WE ARE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUC MODEL
RUN INDICATING MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD LAYER AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUD DECK LOWERING AROUND 06Z ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAIN...FOG...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY YET
BE AN ISSUE FOR KLBB AS LATEST RUC INDICATES SUB-FREEZING LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE AS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND ONLY A
VERY SHALLOW WARM TONGUE ABOVE. SO...WE WILL BE STUDYING THIS
CLOSER THIS EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE AS...HOPEFULLY...OUR
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE USABLE. WE EXPECT TO REMAIN AT IFR OR LIFR
LEVELS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS LATER SUNDAY THAT WE ALSO WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW
WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AT 06Z. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO SCATTERED OUT TODAY AND THIS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...WITH SOME THINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED THESE SPOTS TO WARM MODESTLY INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. STILL COULD SEE MORE
BREAKS DEVELOP/EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY THAT DO MATERIALIZE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. INSTEAD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION ENSUES. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-CLOUDS
AND FOG TO OVERSPREAD/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION /GENERALLY AT AND BELOW 700 MB/ WILL BE
GOOD...OVERALL ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND PROGGED OMEGA FIELDS ARE WEAK
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL...MOST NWP DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z AND THEN
EXPANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN. TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESIDE AT OR JUST BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE ADVANCING
MOISTURE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND/OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...FAVORING THE NORTHWEST ZONES. COULD SEE LIGHT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DENVER CITY TO LUBBOCK
TO CHILDRESS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE FREEZING LINE
SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL...IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE PROFILES
DEEPEN AND SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. GIVEN THIS...THINK OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE LOW...BUT IT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING
FOG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT /IN THE HUNDREDTHS RANGE/...THOUGH DID CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE FA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN ALL DAY SUNDAY...SO ALTHOUGH WAA WILL GIVE
TEMPERATURES A SLIGHT BOOST...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MODEST MAINLY
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL MORE LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUATION OF STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG RATHER THAN LIGHT
RAIN. BY MONDAY NIGHT LIFT ALOFT WILL INCREASE. OVERALL TIMING OF
THIS NEXT TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WOULD FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS GRIDS ACCORDINGLY
WITH PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY DRIVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
FCST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING EWD AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. OVERALL THE PATTERN STILL DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER LATE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 12Z RUNS LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIP NEXT SATURDAY BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE POPS
ATTM.

TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE AS COLD AIR GETS AT LEAST
PARTIALLY DISLODGED. LOOKING AT MILD LOW TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BUT THOSE
FACTORS WILL ALSO LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND THUS HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  42  31  52  35 /  20  10  10  10  20
TULIA         27  41  34  49  39 /  20  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     28  41  36  49  40 /  20  20  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     29  42  37  49  40 /  20  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       31  42  38  49  41 /  20  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   31  42  37  49  41 /  30  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    32  43  37  50  41 /  30  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     31  45  36  52  40 /  10  30  10  10  20
SPUR          33  44  37  51  42 /  20  30  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     34  46  40  51  43 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

99/99/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
237 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

TXZ021>044-112045-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
237 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG...SOME WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.