High Wind in Texas, December 1 to 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
321 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. WENT WITH A NAM AND GFS BLEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT BECAUSE OF STRONG PROGRESSIVE FLOW. VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING
RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS (GREATER THAN 4 MB PRESSURE
CHANGE IN 3 HOURS).  STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS (8 MB PRESSURE CHANGE
IN 3 HOURS) ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AT 850 MB WILL RESULT
IN HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE PASS...SO WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING.

NAM SOLUTION FOR TEMPERATURES STILL HOLD FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. GFS
APPEARS TO TRY TO BRING IN TOO MUCH WARM AIR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
THE CLOUD COVER...THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THE GFS TENDS TO ERODE THE COLD AIR TOO FAST.

A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE
THE COLD DOME WILL FAVOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... MAINLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH 9 AM CST.

MORE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL START TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  BY
15 Z EXPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TURNING
ALL REGIONS IN NON FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

THE CUTOFF LOW WILL OPEN OVER ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN
EJECT EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLD DOME OF
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.  LIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UA TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WAA
PATTERN OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITH HEFTIER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLDEST OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SO THINK WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RELEGATED TO THESE AREAS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WAA
WILL MODERATE THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING IN THESE AREAS...BUT STRONG
LIFT AND WET BULBING IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THINK A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS INITIALLY...BUT
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...OR ALL SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
THINK THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH
OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES EAST.

THE NEXT DILEMMA CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL DATA INDICATE A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...THINK THE NAM HAS THE
BETTER IDEA OF DEVELOPING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING IT EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO STAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THINK WE WILL
STILL SEE A BREAK IN THE COLDER AIR SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE UA
TROUGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/
SOUTHWEST AND SWEEP THE COLD AIRMASS EAST.  THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORTLIVED THOUGH AS COLD AIR WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UA TROUGH.  IN ADDITION...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEPARATES FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OCCUPYING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY TO BE REPLACED BY VERY COLD AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE HEART OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE SOUTH.

SINCE THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD...HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL MORE LIKELY BE SLEET OR
SNOW DURING THESE TIME FRAMES AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO
GO AROUND.  HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT LEFT LOWS HIGHER THAN MOS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND WIND.  MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SET IN MID NEXT
WEEK AS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT MAY
BE IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              35  40  34  57  /  50  60  60  20
CARLSBAD NM                32  38  34  55  /  60  60  50  10
DRYDEN TX                  50  61  53  70  /  10  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  50  40  62  /  20  40  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  38  32  50  /  50  50  50  10
HOBBS NM                   31  38  33  46  /  60  60  60  10
MARFA TX                   32  52  34  57  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  40  35  57  /  50  60  60  20
ODESSA TX                  35  40  36  57  /  50  50  60  20
WINK TX                    37  43  35  59  /  50  50  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
     9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

81/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-022045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
235 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011 /135 PM MST THU DEC 1 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN AREAWIDE.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF A SNYDER...TARZAN...ANDREWS...JAL
AND GUADALUPE PASS LINE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE GREAT...HOWEVER SOME ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREA. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9
PM CST OR 8 PM MST TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST OR 8 AM MST FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA.

STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GUADALUPE PASS TONIGHT.
A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
8 AM MST FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CST OR 8 AM MST FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN...SLEET
OR SNOW AND THEN TO SLEET OR SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TWO INCHES OR LESS. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY CREATE
ADDITIONAL DRIVING HAZARDS.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GUADALUPE PASS FRIDAY
MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM
MST FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND