High Wind in Texas, April 26, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL SWING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA.  THIS TROUGH WILL SPIN UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW WEST OF AMA BY
MIDDAY THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING THE
WIND.  THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY... 700MB WINDS WILL BE 30 TO 40KTS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... WITH A VERY WARM AND SUNNY DAY THERE SHOULD
BE NO PROBLEM MIXING DOWN THIS WIND TO THE SURFACE.  HAVE EXPANDED
EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY BY ADDING COUNTIES IN PREVIOUS
HIGH WIND WATCH AND THE MARFA PLATEAU.  HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN
EFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A TATUM TO MARFA LINE.  WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR REST OF WEST TX TODAY WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR THE
AREA.

THIS MORNING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
WILL GET QUICKLY BLOWN OUT TODAY BY THE WEST WIND.  CURRENTLY THE
AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND
20S... WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 40S BEHIND THE FRONT.  ONCE THE WEST
WIND PICKS UP DEWPTS WILL QUICKLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA SWEEPING THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD.

EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 90S.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN.  THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... BECOMING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST.  A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY.

LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BUT LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INCREASING POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME QPF OVER THE EAST BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY
AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY.  PROJECTED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK THAT FAVORABLE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.  DRIEST PERIOD ON RECORD
CONTINUES... ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL BE 7 MONTHS SINCE MAF RECORDED ITS
LAST DECENT RAIN BACK IN SEPTEMBER... WITH ONLY 0.13 INCH
PRECIPITATION RECORDED SINCE THEN.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY NEXT MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO
THE 70S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGH IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE RH RECOVERY SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. REGARDLESS OF RH RECOVERY...WIDESPREAD
RH VALUES OF 5 PERCENT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. THESE VERY LOW RH/S WILL COINCIDE
WITH NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES /RECORD HIGH TODAY AT MAF IS
97F/...AND VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS /30-40 MPH GUSTS 50+ MPH/ AS
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECTIVELY TAPS INTO A PASSING
BAND OF VERY INTENSE WINDS ALOFT. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE MOST
INTENSE SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATE AFTERNOON /21Z-01Z/ WITH
THE LONGEST DURATION OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.

THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AND
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH THIS WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY IMPACTING ANY ON-GOING FIRES TONIGHT.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE VERY
DRY AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT
AFTERNOON RH/S DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WIND SPEEDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...SHORTENING THE DURATION
OF CRITICAL RH/S OVERLAPPING WITH CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN ABOVE 20 MPH
AND COINCIDE WITH CONTINUED SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON RH/S TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              92  51  78  48  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                91  48  80  45  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  98  61  90  53  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  52  84  53  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  46  77  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   91  45  76  43  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   86  41  80  38  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    93  50  79  45  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  92  51  78  46  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    95  48  84  43  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
     PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM
     ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...
     EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA
     COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
     PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...
     BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...
     HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...
     UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY
     54 CORRIDOR.

&&

01/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
245 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 /145 PM MDT MON APR 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILDFIRES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS AND IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS OF
25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 5 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF
WILDFIRES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 65 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND THE VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND