High Wind in Texas, April 14 to 15, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PROGGED. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN RAMPING UP SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...BUT WE STILL EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE MORE GUSTS INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS LOWER 60S AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...
W-NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT ROUGHLY 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED GUSTS
NEAR 50 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB. SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO BLOWING DUST...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT KLBB UNTIL 01Z. A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING A N-NW
WIND SHIFT INTO THE KCDS AREA ROUGHLY AROUND 00Z TO 01Z AND KLBB
AROUND 03Z. WINDS WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY THOUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY AT KCDS WHERE
THE WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. A BAND OF MID-LVL CLOUDS
MAY BRUSH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KCDS...THIS
EVENING BUT BASES SHOULD REMAIN AOA 10K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WINDS SETTING UP EARLY TODAY WITH
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING PROBABLY BY MIDDAY AT BOTH KCDS AND KLBB.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS GREATER THAN SUSTAINED
30 KTS AT BOTH LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. WINDS SHOULD
START TO LET UP THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH. WATCHING CLOSELY THE SHORT-TERM WIND TRENDS INVOLVING
THIS FRONT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
ARC ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT EXPECTED TO KCDS AROUND 01Z AND KLBB
03Z. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

.VERY STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION....

SHORT TERM...
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN INTENSE
UPPER TROUGH SPINS OUT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT. APPROXIMATE 85 KT WIND
MAX AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BY MIDDAY THEN SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DEVELOP...BUT EXPECTING GENERALLY STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION OF THE
AIRMASS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...AND ALSO HIGH WIND LEVEL OVER MOST OF
OUR NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING DUST AND ALSO LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE
SITUATION DETAILED BELOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MOST AREAS THOUGH COULD EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH ADDED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE.

BY TONIGHT A BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLE WITH HEALTHY 8-10 MB/6 HOUR SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE IN THE ACT OF
DECOUPLING PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD BE ONTO KCDS
CLOSE TO DARK BUT MAY TAKE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO SPREAD
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A VERY SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE MID LAYER
COULD PULL SOME MID CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN ZONES EARLY TONIGHT BUT NO
REAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AS STORM WINDS UP JUST TO THE EAST. COLD
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF WINDS CONTINUING
TO MIX LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND MESS WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BLENDED
PREVIOUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LATEST TRENDS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S WINDS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
EJECT MAKING IT ONLY TO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS
WILL LEAVE A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLIES ON FRIDAY.  AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING AWAY...UL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL THROUGH MONDAY WHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SET IN WITH
A TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH LOOKS SUCH THAT
ITS MAIN INFLUENCES...INSOFAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...WELL
EAST OF THE AREA.  ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS TO OUR WEST INTO WEDNESDAY.

RETURNING TO FRIDAY...FLOW OF 40+ KTS AT H7 OVERSPREADS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.  AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER HEATS
UP...WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THAT WIND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AND COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE FIRE THREAT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. RETURN FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY RAPIDLY
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS MILDLY BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AND WASHES OUT AS ANOTHER
LEE CYCLONE FORMS IN SERN CO BRINGING A RETURN OF BREEZY WINDS
MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IN THE DRYLINE LATE MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE PUSHES IT
EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING US WITH DRY SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY
AND THE CYCLE REPEATS ONCE AGAIN THEREAFTER. AT THIS POINT...THE
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
DAY1
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF A WILD FIRE OUTBREAK EVENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AS A DEEP STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH CORRELATION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILDFIRE OUTBREAK PATTERN.
WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL APPEAR WILL RISE AT LEAST TO 25-30 MPH
FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 40-50
MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 5-10 PERCENT MOST
AREAS THOUGH COULD BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT IF TEMPERATURES EVEN
SLIGHTLY EXCEED EXPECTATIONS. AN IMPRESSIVE RUN OF DRY...WARM...AND
WINDY WEATHER SINCE THE FIRST OF APRIL CERTAINLY HAS FURTHER
DETERIORATED THE ALREADY TINDER DRY FUEL CONDITIONS TO VERY EXTREME
LEVELS. SEVERAL LARGE RECENT FIRES APPEAR MOSTLY CONTAINED...WHILE
ONE OR TWO OTHERS...MOST NOTABLY OVER SOUTHERN KENT COUNTY...ARE
STILL EMITTING AT LEAST SOME HEAT SIGNATURES FROM THE 3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE CHANNEL THIS MORNING. CONTROL MAY BE THREATENED...THOUGH
WITHOUT SPECIFIC KNOWLEDGE OF THE FIRE BREAKS WE ARE RELUCTANT TO
STATE THIS WITH CERTAINTY. STILL...THE EXPECTED HIGH WINDS TODAY ARE
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST NEW STARTS ARE CLEARLY POSSIBLE. THE MAIN LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD BE SHIFTED EAST WITH WESTERN BOUNDARY
NEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS...STRETCHING TO NORTH TEXAS...THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TRANS PECOS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD EASE EARLY
THIS EVENING SOME AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL PUNCH SOUTHWARD TO KCDS BY 2000 LOCAL...AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA
BY 2400 LOCAL. THE WIND SHIFT WOULD THEN BECOME AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD
FOR FIRE SUPPRESSION. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED AGAIN TONIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RMCQUEEN

DAYS2-7
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES TO
BRING A RENEWED FIRE THREAT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY WHICH WILL HELP WINDS STAY
OUT OF HIGH WIND TERRITORY.  ON SATURDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HIGHEST RISK RIGHT ALONG
THE I27 CORRIDOR.  AT THIS POINT...MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
LOOK TO HAVE RED FLAG POTENTIAL.  OVER THE NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES LOOK TO RUN 60 PCT OR LESS. STILL...NO DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN SIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  66  34  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  68  33  74  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  69  35  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  72  38  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  72  38  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  74  38  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  74  38  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     44  72  37  77  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          43  74  37  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  76  38  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022>026-029>032-035>038-042>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ026-032>043.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>042.

&&

33/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1029 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

TXZ021>044-151530-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1029 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRE WEATHER
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREA-WIDE
LATER THIS MORNING...AS VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
CRITICALLY DRY VEGETATION COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SUSTAINED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

NON PRECIPITATION
SUSTAINED HIGH WIND SPEEDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND COULD PROMOTE WIND DAMAGE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CAUSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO UNDER A MILE IN SOME AREAS. RESIDENTS OF WEST
TEXAS WILL WANT TO STAY ABREAST OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE PARTICULARLY FROM A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO LUBBOCK TO
POST ON EASTWARD...AS WINDY CONDITIONS ENSUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AS A RESULT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY OBSERVED
FIRES SHOULD BE REPORTED TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.