Damaging Wind in South Carolina, September 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LABOR DAY AND STALL OUT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST...AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS SOUTHERN NC MTN
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE NEVERTHELESS BEEN PULLED A LITTLE SOUTH TO
THE I-85 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS ANYTHING
DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO THAT AREA WILL HAVE STRONG
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH
OVER THE REGION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS ALSO VERY HIGH...ESP OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH LATE EVENING...AFTER WHICH A WARM NIGHT IS
EXPECTED...OWING TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THE AREA...AS
IT WILL BE /UNDER ASSAULT/ FROM ALL SIDES...FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND T.S. LEE...AND TO THE EAST DUE TO WEAKENING UPPER
LOW. WITH RESULTANT LOWERING THICKNESSES AND DEVELOPING EASTERLY
FLOW...MAXES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERSISTING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESP ALONG THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT...WHERE THE USUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL
BE AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SUN AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TS
LEE IN THE W GULF...AND HIGH PRES OFF THE E COAST WILL PUT THE CWA
IN LGT S FLOW SUN. AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT MOVE
IN FROM THE NW...AND WITH MOISTURE SURGING N AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
EXPECT CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS EARLY IN THE DAY...SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA IN THE AFTN. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCRSNG CLOUDS...LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS NEAR AVG SUN AFTN. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE MTNS SUN NIGHT...INCRSNG S WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF SLOWS DOWN MON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVG OVER THE CWA FROM THE SW BUT THE SFC FRONT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG LL UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE AND DEEP MOISTURE
HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH PERIODS OF MDT RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE
BELOW AVG MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE MON NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA TUE WHILE MOISTURE FROM TD13 CONTINUES TO SURGE UP FROM THE
GULF ON INCREASING S FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT MDT TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. ON WED MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER TROF MOVG E WITH THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH TS LEE MOVG SLOWLY N
TOWARD CNTRL TN AS IT FILLS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN DEEP...
MOIST S FLOW SO KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THRU THE
DAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT GFS IS FASTER BRINGING DRYER AIR IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON DEEP DRYING WED NIGHT-THU
AND HELD ON TO CHC POPS THU WITH A SLIGHT CHC ON FRI. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW AVG THRU FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A ROUND OF GUSTY TSTMS LOOKS PROBABLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SFC
WINDS...ALTHOUGH REMAINING LIGHT WILL BECOMING NE. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE MOISTENING OF THE BLYR TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT IT IS NOT CONCLUSIVE
THAT CIGS NEAR 1K FEET WILL REACH KCLT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BEAR
WATCHING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WILL PLAN ON KEEPING FCST VSBY NOT
WORSE THAN MVFR PENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY...WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW...FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREATEST CLOSER TO THE MTNS...SO THERE IS NO
PLAN TO ADD ANY CB MENTION AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...SAVE FOR A NEAR TERM TSTM PROBABILITY AT KHKY...DEEP
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES LATER THIS EVENING ACRS THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS AND KAVL LOOK SMALL ENUF FOR FORGO ANY CB MENTION. WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRE-DAWN UPSTATE VSBY REDUCTIONS TO JUST
KAND AND A PERIOD OF IFR BR AT KAVL. WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON MTN
TSTMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WILL INTRODUCE CB AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MORNING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND HAZE. ON MONDAY...MVFR AND IFR WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FROM ARRIVES FROM
THE NW. THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE EXTENDED PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES
OR HIGHER 85 TIMES THIS YEAR AS OF SEPTEMBER 2. THIS BREAKS THE
RECORD FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HAS
REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A YEAR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...CSH/JDL
CLIMATE...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OUT OVER THE AREA AS TROPICAL STORM LEE LINGERS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING...ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARIDNG THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN SO THE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ056-069-022130-
CATAWBA-LINCOLN-
501 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VALE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3562 8134 3545 8136 3545 8147 3554 8151
      3555 8151 3556 8152 3557 8153 3561 8151
      3563 8148

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ068-022145-
CLEVELAND-
521 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGSTOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SHELBY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHELBY...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8152 3520 8144 3519 8177 3537 8170
      3545 8169

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

NCZ062-022200-
MACON-
535 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MACON COUNTY THROUGH 600
PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OTTO...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3503 8346 3519 8333 3518 8322 3516 8322
      3503 8325

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW SUNSHINE          35.47N 81.86W
09/02/2011                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ALL OVER...SOUTH TOWARD FOREST CITY.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW HARMONY            35.97N 80.79W
09/02/2011                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MANY TREES DOWN.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             ELLENBORO               35.33N 81.76W
09/02/2011  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KRENTZ