Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, May 27 to 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COVERAGE TRENDS.
SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING HAVE WEAKENED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION.

BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHIFT INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A 5 PERCENT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITHIN INTENSIFYING
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VARY GREATLY...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ALREADY EXPERIENCED AT PARTICULAR
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...YET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND EVENTUALLY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...A SHEAR AXIS...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL
PERSIST OVER N/E COUNTIES BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SW. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SHEAR AXIS TO START THE DAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SC
COASTAL COUNTIES. THEN...DESTABILIZATION AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE EASTERN US. WHILE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS AT NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT
COVERAGE/DURATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW
15 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN FEATURING THE DEEP LAYER UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
PERSIST WITH LITTLE/NO DIURNAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE NE US AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE REGION...A
WEAKENED CAP AND POOLING OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE INDICATED MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD
PERIODICALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LEVELS..ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA FOR KSAV...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL TAKE LONGER TO PROGRESS INLAND. THUS KSAV COULD SEE MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAN KCHS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
CB AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITHING PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CONSIDERING SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES VFR FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST
FOR HIGHER WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NOCTURNAL SURGE TONIGHT WILL BE SUBTLE AT
BEST. THUS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 15 KT OR
LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED
MAINLY OF SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF 3 OR 4 FT.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS...MAINLY TONIGHT. AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THESE
STORMS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. S/SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL TURN TOWARD THE E AND EVEN
OCCASIONALLY NE...ENHANCED EACH DAY BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND PERSISTS NE OF THE
WATERS. THE LONG DURATION E/NE FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS TO AS HIGH AS
3-5 FT EARLY TO MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-280815-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE
SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARIES FROM THESE AND OTHER NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS FROM 3 TO 10 PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-280815-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
223 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

SCZ042-043-047>049-051-271915-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-COASTAL JASPER-HAMPTON-INLAND
COLLETON-INLAND JASPER-
223 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON...JASPER...
BEAUFORT AND COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR RICETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
COOSAWHATCHIE...CUMMINGS...EARLY BRANCH...GARDENS CORNER...GARNETT...
GILLISONVILLE...GRAHAMVILLE...GRAYS...GREEN POND...HENDERSONVILLE...
MCPHERSONVILLE...OLD HOUSE...PINELAND...POCOTALIGO...RIDGELAND...
ROBERTVILLE...SHELDON...SWITZERLAND...TARBORO...TILLMAN...WHITE HALL
AND YEMASSEE...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8087 3270 8052 3233 8099 3259 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 227DEG 20KT 3254 8094

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

GAZ118-271900-
INLAND CHATHAM-
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHATHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...NEAR TUTENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
BLOOMINGDALE...GARDEN CITY...MEINHARD...MONTEITH...POOLER AND PORT
WENTWORTH...

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAVE AN ACTION PLAN READY IN THE EVENT THIS STORM STRENGTHENS OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3204 8135 3212 8132 3217 8129 3222 8122
      3224 8119 3223 8115 3219 8111 3217 8111
      3217 8113 3215 8111 3212 8112 3210 8108
      3199 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 217DEG 13KT 3206 8127

JAQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             RICHMOND HILL           31.94N  81.30W
05/27/2011  E0.88 INCH       BRYAN              GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF PENNY TO NICKEL
            SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100409

JAQ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             POOLER                  32.12N  81.25W
05/27/2011  E0.75 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100412

BDC