Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SKY EAST OF THE MTNS REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CU ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WITH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS MIDDLE KY AND NW TN. MESOSCALE INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AXIS OF HIGHER CAPES WITHIN THE SFC TROF AND LITTLE TO NO CIN ACROSS
THE CWA. BASED ON THE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS I EXPECT THAT TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE MTNS
BETWEEN THROUGH 21Z WITH ENHANCED CU AND ISO TS WITHIN THE PIEDMONT
TROF BY 20Z. BY 21Z...SFC CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SURGE EAST OF THE
MTNS AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE SFC TROF...PROMOTING SCT TO NUM
SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. THE FORMATION OF COOL POOLS AND
SWEEPING FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXITING THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.

CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DCAPE VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 1000 J/KG...HIGHEST VALUES OVER
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FZL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 14
KFT...PLACING THE 55 DBZ CORE AROUND 25.5 KFT. LLVL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR PEAKING AROUND 20 M/S.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES WITH K-INDEX IN THE MID 30S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND IN THE HWO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOOK
CERTAIN...BUT STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT THE FF POTENTIAL...WE WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DRY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT SKY COVER WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN CLEARING SKY COVER AND WEAK CAA LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW PERSISTENCE. CLEAR AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER MORNING TEMPS AND
LOWER THICKNESSES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. FAVORING THE COOLER MET...I WILL FORECAST MID 80S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L90S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM SUNDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS COMPLICATED AND
UNSETTLED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG UPPER LOW BUILDS INTO
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED MAX/MIN VORT STREAM
ACROSS THE CWFA WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT ALOFT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUE STILL SHOW LITTLE SBCAPE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE
THE MTNS...ESP THE NAM...BUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND WEIGHTING
PERSISTENCE WILL COUNT ON ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TUE AFTNOON/EVE....HOWEVER STORMS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS OR GENERAL IN NATURE. THE SREF PROBS ARE IN
THE 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WED. MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT WORKING SOUTH
AS TIME PROGRESS. SO...POPS WERE BUMPED UP JUST A BIT TO MAINTAIN
THE SOLID CHANCE WORDAGE. A NEW FEATURE ADVERTISED IN THE OP MODELS
AND THE SREF IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG AN
EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING CWFA WED. THIS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD BE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A ROUND OF ORGANIZED AND LONG LASTING SEVERE STORMS WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS TUE SHOULD REACH RIGHT AROUND 90 OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND M80S
MTN VALLEYS. ON WED THERE WILL BE A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT N/S...WITH
THE SRN ZONES REACHING NEAR 90 AND THE NRN ZONES PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE THE MTN VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS FAIRLY BUSY AND
UNSETTLED. THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOWS ALONG THE NRN TIER OF
STATES WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE
REGION AND LEAVE IT LANGUISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW
A PROGRESSION OF VORT CENTERS EASTWARD IN THE WNW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...BEGINNING WED NITE AND CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND...
SUGGESTING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE IN THE MCS TRACK FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS
GREATEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. THINK
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL SEE A SHOWER OR STORM AT SOME POINT WED
NITE OR THURSDAY...BUT A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WHEN THE
LIKELIHOOD IS GREATEST WILL KEEP THE POP HELD DOWN TO THE CHANCE
RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
THAT WE SHOULD GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT TO NUM TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF COVERAGE
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. I
WILL INDICATE CB AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. TSRA SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND LIGHT NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP POST FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS. IT
APPEARS THAT KAVL WILL REMAIN TOO FAR EAST FOR A CEILING...I WILL
INDICATE FEW AT 030. AFTER SUNRISE...LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SO AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE FEWER THAN LAST FEW DAYS.
FROM WEDNESDAY THRU REST OF THE WEEK...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA AND MORNING VALLEY FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CATAWBA            34.87N 80.94W
06/11/2011                   YORK               SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN ON CATAWBA CHURCH ROAD

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

NCZ501-502-121915-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
235 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8148 3608 8142 3604 8137
      3595 8139 3605 8174 3607 8173 3607 8175
      3610 8178 3612 8177 3613 8155

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             3 NNW HARRISBURG        35.36N 80.69W
06/11/2011  E0.75 INCH       CABARRUS           NC   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL ON 3 AND 4 AT ROCKY RIVER GOLF CLUB.

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

NCZ052-053-121930-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANDLER...OR 10 MILES WEST
OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LEICESTER...
  I-26 AT I-40...
  WOODFIN...
  UNC ASHEVILLE...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...
  BILTMORE FOREST...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3566 8239 3547 8240 3545 8247 3544 8253
      3543 8254 3544 8255 3544 8256 3548 8284
      3566 8282

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW KINGS MOUNTAIN     35.22N 81.37W
06/11/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON STEWART ROAD NEAR DIXON
            SCHOOL ROAD

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

SCZ001-002-005-121930-
GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
247 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NINE TIMES...OR 10 MILES
WEST OF PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  KEOWEE...SIX MILE...SALEM...PICKENS...NINE TIMES...LIBERTY...EASLEY
  AND DACUSVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3480 8289 3481 8289 3480 8290 3482 8300
      3500 8297 3499 8254 3497 8254 3477 8257
      3475 8263

07