Heavy thunderstorm rainfall produced flash flooding in Carlisle.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Heavy thunderstorm rainfall produced flash flooding in Carlisle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 10:57 AM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1157 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WARM...BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SECOND MCV OF THE DAY...THIS ONE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS /NEAR KJST AT 1545Z/. THIS FEATURE /COUPLED WITH DEEP/COPIOUS MOISTURE SITUATED TO ITS EAST WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFL OF 1-1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH PLUS AMTS PROMPTED THE RECENT ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 6 COUNTIES. ...PREVIOUS MID MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW... ELSEWHERE...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ADVECT SLOWLY TO THE SE ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND INTO THE SE THIRD OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING... AND INTERACT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. THE RATHER THICK AND EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF ALTO CU AND CIRRO STRATUS /MOVING ENE FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/ WILL COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO HELP DAMPEN THE CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VARY HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. SPC'S SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSRA COVERS FAR SOUTHERN PA TODAY. POCKETS OF HIGHER 0-3KM HELICITY OVER 150M2/S2 WILL RIPPLE NE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING CFRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN SOME OF THE TSRA AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TSRA WELL AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE ZONES IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOMALOUS PWATS/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY SVR TSRA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL NR THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY...SUPPLYING THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. GEFS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 16C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM NR 80F HIGH TERRAIN...TO U80S SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND NEWRD FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING INCREASING INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA FORMING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN AFTN. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A DRY SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MDL SOLUTIONS INDICATE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRACK ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THRU PA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. GEFS PLUME DATA INDICATES A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BTWN MON PM AND TUE AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA. PWATS NR 2SD ABV NORMAL ALSO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS MINIMAL LATER NEXT WEEK...INDICATING A RELATIVELY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BRING FAIR WX AND LOWER HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO COOL NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY RAIN /ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS/ WILL ADVANCE GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF PENN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED TSRA WILL TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED MAINLY FROM KMDT AND KLNS SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED THROUGH ATLEAST 04Z SAT. THINGS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT...AS FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND BURN OFF SAT AM...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FLYING CONDS SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MON-TUE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ057-059-063>066. && SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-045-046-091800- WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ042-091800- SULLIVAN- 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ057-059-064>066-091800- DAUPHIN-LEBANON-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ063-091800- CUMBERLAND- 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ051>053-058-091800- MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PAZ026>028-034>036-049-050-056-091800- HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER- PERRY- 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011
PAZ005-006-081330-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
838 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011
...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MCKEAN AND
NORTHERN POTTER COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM EDT...
AT 834 AM EDT...TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
SHINGLEHOUSE AND KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK...MOVING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR CROSBY AROUND 850 AM...OSWAYO
AROUND 900 AM...GENESEE AROUND 910 AM...ROULETTE AROUND 920 AM AND
COUDERSPORT AROUND 930 AM.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...STATE ROAD
449.
LAT...LON 4195 7765 4172 7802 4167 7841 4170 7863
4200 7816 4200 7800 4200 7761
FORECASTER: LAMBERTSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011
PAZ049-050-081800-
SNYDER PA-UNION PA-
1256 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND WESTERN
SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH 2 PM EDT...
AT 1255 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BEAVER SPRINGS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS
STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BEAVERTOWN AROUND 110 PM...TROXELVILLE
AROUND 130 PM...WEIKERT AROUND 140 PM AND PENNS CREEK AROUND 200 PM.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD
45.
LAT...LON 4068 7720 4069 7728 4072 7734 4091 7726
4086 7702
FORECASTER: LAMBERTThe State College radar (KCCX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:31 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Torrential thunderstorm rainfall produced localized flash flooding in Carlisle.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 312650.