Damaging Winds in Oregon, March 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WINDS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT
FOR THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AS A STRONG H7 JET
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT HELPS TO BRING DOWN THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR. THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
CORE OF THE JET MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WARNING BASED ON THE RECENT OBSERVATION FROM LONG CREEK AND THE
18Z NAM GUIDANCE. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS WALLOWA COUNTY. THINK AN
ADVISORY WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY BUT HIGH WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE JOSEPH AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING
MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING...BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT NORTHERN OREGON
AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WINDS AND RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY BUT A
VERY WET WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON MAY EXCEED 1 INCH WITH SNOW
LEVELS MARGINAL FOR SNOW. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A PROLONGED
HYDROLOGIC EVENT UPCOMING AS OPPOSED TO A HEAVY SNOW EVENT BUT THE
THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND REFINED IN THE COMING
DAYS. 78

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG
WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COVER THE
ENTIRE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM FORM THE TROUGH SO THAT
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE CASCADES PRODUCES SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM SPREADS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGS
SOUTHWARD AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LONG WAVE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN/SNOW SHADOWING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN
THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
MAY GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LONG WAVE THEN
DEVELOPS A NEGATIVELY TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPLY A MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAINS SNOW IN EASTERN OREGON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS INDICATE A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN THE BACK (WEST) SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ON THE COAST
MOVES INLAND. A WARM FRONT PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW MVFR
THROUGH IS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LASTING A FEW
HOURS FOLLOWED BY A RAIN SHIELD SWEEPING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KNOTS AT
MANY SITES WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD. AT KRDM...KBDN
AND KPDT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL AND SUDDEN STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT THE SAME OCCURRING AT KPSC...BUT WILL
MONITOR KPSC FOR UPGRADING WIND SPEEDS TO HIGHER VALUES TODAY. WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LLWS AT AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT  WILL MONITOR FOR LLWS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CROSSING THE CASCADES BY MID AFTERNOON
AND BRING A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN ADDITION TO A BETTER
PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND LASTING INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO THE AVIATION ROUTE OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
FROM KPDT TO KBKE WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND
VSBY PRODUCED BY RAIN FROM 14/00Z TO 14/06Z AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES OVER BLUE MOUNTAINS. VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER SOLID BACK EDGE TO THE FRONT AND
BELIEVE THIS WILL STILL BE THE CASE LATER TODAY THUS EXPECT A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN AND LOWER CLOUD BASES/CIGS WHILE WINDS WILL
TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  38  55  39  54 /  60  30  20  90
ALW  42  57  42  55 /  70  30  20  90
PSC  40  61  40  56 /  80  30  20  90
YKM  35  56  35  55 /  80  50  30  90
HRI  37  60  38  58 /  60  30  20  90
ELN  34  54  35  54 /  80  40  30  90
RDM  34  51  36  57 /  70  40  30  90
LGD  38  49  37  51 /  60  30  20  90
GCD  37  49  36  54 /  70  40  20  90
DLS  37  57  39  54 /  70  60  30  90

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ050.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ506-509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ503.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ505.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY ORZ507-508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     WAZ027-028-521.

&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : YELLOW
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : YELLOW

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

78/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

UPDATED FOR WIND HIGHLIGHTS

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
141430-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
244 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG WIND
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON,
     KITTITAS VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON
     CASCADES, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF
     THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN,
     OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS,SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. NUMEROUS WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PDXNPWPDT PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG WIND MONDAY
     SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
     WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK BRINGING HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW ONLY AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LONG CREEK              44.71N 119.10W
03/13/2011  M63 MPH          GRANT              OR   MESONET

            MESONET SITE MEASURED 63 MPH WIND GUST AT 324PM.

&&

DWEBER