Hail in Missouri, March 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOWFALL.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED
FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME SMALL HAIL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN AN
AREA OF 60KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NEARLY 100 POPS GOING
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AND
THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. COLD CORE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE
TRENDED COLDER WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM WHICH IS LEADING TO A
CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE FORECAST. VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES WHICH WOULD INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF MELTING...IN
FACT DO NOT HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TRACE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR TO AROUND AN INCH IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. MUCH
OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS AND AM NOT
EXPECTING ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
LIKELY NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

WILL START TO SEE A WARMUP BY TUESDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD...BRANSON...AND JOPLIN
AIRPORTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE ENTIRE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW VFR STATUS AROUND OR JUST PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT...WHILE VISIBILITIES ALSO LOWER DUE TO RAIN.  THIS RAIN
WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROLONGED...WHICH COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE REASON FOR THE LOWERING IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1257 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...LIMITED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED SNOW RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND
  TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED
  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

  PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
  SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AS
  THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN.  THE CHANCE OF
  SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
  44 CORRIDOR.  LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
  AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS MAINLY CONFINED
  TO AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
  WHILE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
  FORECAST...THOSE WITH TRAVEL INTERESTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
  SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
  ACCUMULATIONS.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
  SATURDAY OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

MOZ088-093-132015-
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
246 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JASPER AND NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF IRON GATES...OR NEAR
GALENA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. THERE IS ALSO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...
DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD...
ORONOGO...SAGINAW...SARCOXIE...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SILVER CREEK AND
WEBB CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 31 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

CRAMER