High Wind in Oregon, January 17, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
935 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...TWO MAIN CONCERNS. FIRST IS THE
ONGOING FLOOD ISSUES WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION. FOR NOW THE MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS OVER AND
NOW JUST DEALING WITH CREST LAG TIMES AS WATER WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE RIVER SYSTEMS. SECOND CONCERN IS THE WIND. A STRONG JET ALOFT IS
SETTLING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPIRE THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TODAY AS GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
THAT WILL AID IN PULLING SOME OF THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB WINDS (APPROXIMATELY 5 KT) ARE
FORECAST TO BE 34-70 KT UNTIL 18/00Z. THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HIGH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPSC UNTIL 18/03Z WITH WIND
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 40-45 KTS...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS LOCATION. KPDT...KALW...AND KDLS COULD ALSO
SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 KTS...WHILE KYKM...KRDM...AND KBDN MAY SEE
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. ALL AREAS WILL SEE A DECREASE IN WINDS MONDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. 76

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AT THE TOP OF DRAINAGES ARE STARTING TO CREST
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH WATER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM WITH
FLOOD WARNINGS TO CONTINUE AT THE LOWER POINTS.  SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THROUGH THE DAY.  ML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  RECENT HEAVY RAIN...ICE
JAMS...AND SNOW MELT RUNOFF HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE FORECAST AREA.  FLOOD WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.  SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION IN THIS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE NEXT CONCERN IS WIND.  A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
WASHINGTON...AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS OF
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS.  A SHORTWAVE MOVED
SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A 150KT NW
JET FORCED THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND BROUGHT VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON.  THIS WAS EVIDENT
BY THE STRONG DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR.  DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 60-83 MPH WERE REPORTED BY SEVERAL MESONET SITES NEAR
HANFORD...AND ONE GUST OF 96 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE HANFORD
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.  IT HAS BEEN VERY WINDY
ELSEWHERE...THUS THE CURRENT WARNING AND ADVISORIES ARE ON TRACK.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVENT WILL END EARLIER THAN 7 PM...AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE DURING THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AND ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT.  ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
RAIN AND SNOW.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE BASIN FLOOR.
HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
BASIN MAY ONLY SEE A SKIFF OF SNOW.  A COLDER AND DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.  JOHNSON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY (MODELS ARE DISAGREEING
WITH THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH SEEM TO BE TAKING A FASTER
TIMING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS). THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO RAINSHADOWING
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ON SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE AREA BEFORE MORE DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000-5000 FEET
DURING THE DAY AND LOWER AT NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DMH

HYDROLOGY...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
AREA.  MOST FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NEAR THE UPPER REACHES OF THE UMATILLA
RIVER.  FORTUNATELY...RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...FLOODING WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT TODAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  NUMEROUS FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT.  JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  39  44  33 /  10  10  60  40
ALW  56  42  46  35 /  10  10  60  40
PSC  61  39  45  33 /   0   0  50  20
YKM  58  33  41  27 /   0   0  40  20
HRI  59  38  45  32 /   0  10  50  30
ELN  53  33  38  25 /   0  10  40  20
RDM  53  32  48  29 /   0  10  40  30
LGD  54  34  43  32 /  20  20  50  50
GCD  53  36  48  33 /  10  10  50  50
DLS  60  39  48  35 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING ORZ507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING ORZ044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING ORZ042.

     SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TODAY ORZ049-050-502-507.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE UMATILLA RIVER TODAY ORC059.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE JOHN DAY RIVER TODAY ORC069.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE GRANDE RONDE RIVER TODAY ORC063.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ026-027-520-521.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ028.

     SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TODAY WAZ029-030-520.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KLICKITAT NEAR PITT TODAY WAC039.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE YAKIMA RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY WAC077-005

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NACHES RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY WAC077.

     FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WALLA WALLA RIVER TODAY WAZ028-029.

&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : RED
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

91/76/76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

UPDATED FOR EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
181230-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
915 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT...

***FLOOD WARNINGS (PDXFLWPDT/PDXFLSPDT)***
    NACHES RIVER, YAKIMA RIVER, KLICKITAT RIVER, UMATILLA RIVER,
    JOHN DAY RIVER, GRANDE RONDE RIVER, WALLA WALLA RIVER

***SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY (PDXFLSPDT)***
    IN OREGON:  CROOK COUNTY, WHEELER COUNTY, GRANT COUNTY, NORTHERN
                UMATILLA COUNTY, UNION COUNTY, WALLOWA COUNTY

   IN WASHINGTON: KITTITAS COUNTY, WESTERN KLICKITAT COUNTY,
                WESTERN YAKIMA COUNTY, COLUMBIA COUNTY, EASTERN
                WALLA WALLA COUNTY

***HIGH WIND WARNING (PDXNPWPDT)***
    LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON

***WIND ADVISORY (PDXNPWPDT)***
    EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS,
    EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
    YAKIMA VALLEY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON,
    EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
    EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF
    OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
    FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, ICE JAMS, AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF HAVE RESULTED
IN SHARP RISES ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS IN EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON.  ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED
OFF...ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL RESULT IN WATER LEVELS REACHING NEAR TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THIS INCLUDES LARGE RIVERS SUCH AS NACHES RIVER,
YAKIMA RIVER, KLICKITAT RIVER, UMATILLA RIVER, AND JOHN DAY RIVER.
MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG MANY OF THE SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

A STRONG FRONT THAT PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES LAST NIGHT HAS
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DAMAGING
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY SITE NEAR
HANFORD.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO THE BASIN FLOOR...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED.  THE COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT RUNOFF...AND WATER LEVELS WILL RECEDE DURING
THIS TIME.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
TODAY.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 W BASIN CITY         46.60N 119.46W
01/16/2011  M83.00 MPH       BENTON             WA   MESONET

            WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND 61 MPH GUST TO 83 MPH. WIND GUSTS
            55-81 MPH MEASURED FREQUENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
            HOURS JAN. 17. GABLE MOUNTAIN ELEV. 1086 FEET.

1115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NW WEST RICHLAND      46.39N 119.54W
01/16/2011  M96.00 MPH       BENTON             WA   MESONET

            WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 44 MPH GUSTS TO 96 MPH. HANFORD
            EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. WIND GUSTS 60-72 MPH
            MEASURED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JAN. 17.

1215 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 22 NE SUNNYSIDE         46.58N 119.73W
01/17/2011  M70.00 MPH       BENTON             WA   MESONET

            WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 47 MPH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. SEVERAL
            MESONET SITES IN THE HANFORD DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY SITE
            MEASURED GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH AROUND THIS TIME.

0250 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W SUNNYSIDE           46.33N 120.08W
01/17/2011  M59.00 MPH       YAKIMA             WA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SOUTHWEST WIND 48 MPH GUSTS TO 59 MPH. OUTLOOK WEATHER
            STATION.

&&

MJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
617 AM PST MON JAN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW MIKKALO          45.38N 120.46W
01/17/2011  M61 MPH          GILLIAM            OR   MESONET

            WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND 32 MPH WITH GUST TO 61 MPH. AJAX
            MESONET SITE.

&&

MJOHNSON