High Wind in Oklahoma, March 22, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...

.UPDATE...
UPDATED WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING TO INCREASE WINDS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. ALSO...INCREASED HIGHS AND WINDS AS WELL AS
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

MAY ADD PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST
FEW MINUTES IN AMARILLO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A
GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 40 MPH AT
DALHART...DUMAS...AND HEREFORD WITH GUSTS UP TO 52 MPH IN THE PAST
HOUR. THUS...INCREASED WINDS IN WIND ADVISORY AREA.

WILL BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND 58
MPH...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF A DALHART TO BEAVER LINE...WHERE 500
MB JET 70-80 KTS EXIST. FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON UPGRADE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINLY REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

INCREASED HIGHS AND LOWERED SKY COVER TODAY. INCREASED HIGHS 3 TO 7
DEGREES OVER THE EAST PANHANDLES.

PATCHY BLOWING DUST HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 5 MILES NEAR
AMARILLO AND DUMAS. MAY ADD THIS IN THE FORECAST IF THIS BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. IF WIDESPREAD 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES RESULT
FROM BLOWING DUST...A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT BY 4 PM. VERY STRONG WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE WIND. EXPECT WINDS TO
RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET
BEHIND PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE HIGHER THIS
MORNING THAT WINDS WILL GUST TO OR EXCEED 40 KTS AT KAMA...AND AN AWW
WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING EFFECTIVE FROM 15Z UNTIL 01Z.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE PACIFIC FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE REGION...IT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z. MODELS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE
ON WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME LOCATIONS EVEN REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THINK IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS AS STRONG AS WHAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...EVEN GOING WITH THE LOWEST MODEL WIND SPEEDS
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE COULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS
GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW. EVEN
STILL...IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE
ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN IS THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOWEVER IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL STALL ON THURSDAY AND IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WEST OF THE DRYLINE LOOKS LIKELY
FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE STRONG.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND THURSDAY. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...RESULTING IN A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THE
TIMING...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT...AND THUS
PRECIP TYPE ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. ECMWF SHOWS A VERY PROGRESSIVE
AND COLD SYSTEM. IN THIS SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE SIMILAR TIMING ON
THE COLD FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT APPROACH THE REGION
UNTIL SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIP GENERALLY TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. FOR
NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO MAINLY BE RAIN...HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR COULD MEAN THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AM SKEPTICAL
OF THE ECMWF SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN HAS
BEEN THE TREND LATELY. THUS FORECAST FAVORS THE MEX AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR NOW.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY. WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION LEADING TO A POOR RECOVERY OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECREASE
SHARPLY NEAR SUNSET. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES COULD SEE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND COULD EVEN SEE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS VERY
LOW BEYOND THURSDAY.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  34  70  34  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
BEAVER OK                  79  31  70  31  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
BOISE CITY OK              67  30  66  29  71 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  76  39  70  40  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
BOYS RANCH TX              72  31  70  33  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  72  32  71  33  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLARENDON TX               79  40  73  38  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
DALHART TX                 68  27  68  29  74 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  74  31  67  28  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
HEREFORD TX                70  33  69  33  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                79  34  71  32  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
PAMPA TX                   74  35  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  39  73  37  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
WELLINGTON TX              86  41  76  38  75 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1137 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-230445-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1137 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF WEST WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 MPH...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15
PERCENT...AND DRY GRASSES WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES UNTIL 7 PM TODAY.

PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MILES AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

TAB