Drought in Oklahoma, January 18 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ IFR TO LOW MVFR CEILING HEIGHT/VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY
EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST TOWARD KSPS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT KSPS IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...BUT
COULD ALSO GET INTO KOKC...KOUN...AND KLAW PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRY AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD AND
CEILINGS BEGIN TO RISE. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011/

UPDATE...
WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER WESTERN OK FOR TONIGHT. THE LEFT EXIT
AREA OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET... NOSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CO
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE LIFT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN NW KS HAS SUPPORTED SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. THE NEW RUC/HRR/NAM MODEL
RUNS ALL INDICATE LIGHT QPF OVER FAR WESTERN OK DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. WITH IFR SATELLITE ALREADY INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE... THINK IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
REACH NW AND W-CENTRAL OK BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC OVER NW OK TOWARDS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OVERNIGHT INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE... THE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN NW OK COULD APPROACH OR SLIP BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK TOWARDS MORNING. THESE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER A SECONDARY FRONT... CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING... REACHES NORTHERN OK LATER TONIGHT. WHILE
WE EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR PRIOR TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING... THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW TOWARDS MORNING.
ATTM... IT APPEARS THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS... IF ANY... WOULD BE
SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.

WILL DECREASE POPS OVER THE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR SW OK AND A SMALL PART OF
NORTH TX FOR A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OTHER AREA OF
CONCERN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING SSE THROUGH NW KS AND ITS POTENTIAL TO
REACH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK. WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT
NEW MODEL DATA BEFORE ADDRESSING THE KS ACTIVITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOW COOLING THIS EVENING...WHICH
SHOULD DELAY A RETURN TO SUB-VFR VISIBILITY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT
MOST TERMINALS. VISIBILITY AND CEILING ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BUT THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LAST NO MORE THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
ONCE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL /LIKELY LATE TOMORROW MORNING/...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED PRECIPITATION... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES ARE LIKELY VIRGA. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
THIS IS STILL WORTH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL RH
WILL SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN MANY AREAS.
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
WEDNESDAY AS THIS COOLER AIRMASS LIFTS OUT.

THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A VORT
MAX NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WARM /ABOVE 0C/ TEMPERATURES PERSISTING IN ROUGHLY THE 800-750 MB
LAYER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW
FREEZING SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET... ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET
TOO FANCY WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE
SOME ATTEMPT IN THIS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS. SOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH.

CURRENT MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS LOOK A BIT WARMER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS SO HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  33  42  24  49 /  20  10   0  10
HOBART OK         36  45  26  51 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  53  29  58 /  20   0   0  10
GAGE OK           31  48  25  50 /  30  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     28  35  17  45 /  30   0   0  10
DURANT OK         37  48  26  51 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/03/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
925 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
925 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE... OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAM WINDS NOSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES ARE MARGINAL... A CLAP
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS BORDER.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY JAN 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...5 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
IF ANY LIGHT RAIN IS STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARDS
MORNING... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SPOTTY... LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER... NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT... PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS RAIN... BUT CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. DURING THIS
TRANSITION... A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE
POSSIBLE.

IT WILL ALSO TURN MUCH COLDER WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
AROUND ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD... RANGING FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER TEENS IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND LOWER 20S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
5 AM TUESDAY.

CJS