Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, September 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS IN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW DIURNALLY FIRED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACRS THE LOWER
PIEDMONT...WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREATER INSTABILITY
PLUME. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ALONG AND
NW OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING. WED MORNING MIN TEMPS ARE
SLATED TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO. INSTABILITY BUBBLES UP
AGAIN SE OF I-85 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO SOME NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR
THE MTNS WHERE CHANNEL VORT ENERGY RIPPLES THRU WITHIN THE LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP FEATURING MAX
TEMPS 5-7 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT-THU WITH AN ASSOC SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE N CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THU MRNG. SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NE OF THE AREA
THU AFTN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE INTO THE CWA.
STILL SEE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHC
POPS OVER THE MTNS...MAINLY THE N NC MTNS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEG ABOVE AVG THU...NEAR AVG FRI. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG WED NIGHT...AROUND AVG THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE AS THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND WELL AGREED
UPON BY THE MODELS. A STRONG AND HIGH MAGNITUDE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE REPLACED BY 592DM
HIGH ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS AND BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE ZONE
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. IN EITHER CASE...THE PATTERN SHOULD BE
DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND NO POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE EXT
RANGE GRIDS.

THE BIG THING WILL BE THE AIRMASS CHANGE. THE OP MODELS SHOW A
DEFINITE CP THETA/E AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE CWFA BEGINNING EARLY
SAT AND CONTINUED FLUX THROUGH EARLY SUN...BEFORE MODIFYING IN GOOD
INSOLATION CONDITIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT AND SUN...THEN A COUPLE CATS WARMER MON/TUE
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS
OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS NEAR
RECORD LEVELS IN VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE A FROST CONCERN ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MINS AND TDD/S LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST ISSUE...BUT THE HIGHEST NC MTN PEAKS WILL HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING FROST FORMATION. THIS SCENARIO COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRUE CHARACTER OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS...SO
FOLKS WITH FROST CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE MOST CURRENT FORECASTS
AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SW WINDS AND JUST SOME MID-LVL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE PATCHY MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE PIEDMONT LATER
TONIGHT...BUT NOT SURE IF VSBY AT THE TERMINAL WILL DIP BELOW VFR
OR NOT. SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABT 10 KTS WED AFTERNOON AS VFR
LVL CU DEVELOPS.

ELSEWHERE...FAIR TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY MVFR FOG ACRS THE
FTHLS/PIEDMONT AND LOCALLY DENSE IN THE MTN VALLEYS. SUNSHINE WILL
MIX WITH DEVELOPING CU ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK....GRADUAL DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY DRY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CSH/JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-282045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

SCZ012-019-280100-
GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
811 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENWOOD AND SOUTHERN LAURENS
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 810 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CALLISON...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF GREENWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENWOOD...
  NINETY SIX...
  LAKE GREENWOOD...
  CROSS HILL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3397 8219 3401 8224 3399 8228
      3406 8233 3411 8227 3415 8224 3436 8192
      3431 8187 3430 8189 3420 8194 3418 8190
      3413 8187 3398 8199 3395 8204

RWH