Cold pool driven convection moved off the higher terrain during the late evening hours and produced thunderstorm wind damage in Forsyth and Guilford Counties.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Cold pool driven convection moved off the higher terrain during the late evening hours and produced thunderstorm wind damage in Forsyth and Guilford Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 26, 8:50 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 950 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY... RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING... AND THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL NC ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE LINE ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND IS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD). EXPECT THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE AND POTENTIALLY GAINING EASTWARD SPEED AS THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BECOMING MORE OUTFLOW DRIVEN. HOWEVER... THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY WILL WE STABILIZE BEFORE ANY ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST OR WESTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING LINE MAKING IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OR DISSIPATING. THUS... WILL UP POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SOLID CHANCE AND/OR LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AFTER 08Z AND GENERALLY WEST OF RALEIGH. GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 DEGREE C/KM REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUS... WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR WX IN THE HWO... AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S... WITH PERHAPS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. -BSD THE MAIN DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILED TROUGH AXIS IS POISED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TREMENDOUSLY AS THE COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE DOMINANT LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES... FEEL LIKELY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS IS WARRANTED ACROSS THE WEST. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO STIFLE DESTABILIZATION IN THE WEST...BUT MODELS SHOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING IN THE EAST WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOP. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT OF ZERO TO SIX KILOMETER BULK SHEAR...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY REACH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND 12Z HI-RES WRF SOLUTIONS MAY BE UNDERDONE. HIGHS ARE TRICKY TOMORROW AND THERE IS BUST POTENTIAL BASED ON POSSIBLE STRATUS PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. HAVE HIGHS 82 TO 86 WEST TO EAST. -SMITH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AIR MASS PROJECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT SOME DRYING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MILLIBARS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF SOME SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DEPICTING VARYING DEGREES OF CONFLUENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ALL-IN-ALL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER TROUGH WILL INITIALLY INTERACT WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 1200-1800 J/KG AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES 1000 TO 1200 J/JG...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WHERE PARTIAL SUN PROBABLE. BULK SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME BUT STILL SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WEST WITH POPS DECREASING FARTHER EAST (SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE COASTAL PLAIN). EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ADVANCE TO THE HIGHWAY ONE CORRIDOR. AFTERWHICH...DYNAMICS WANE SIGNIFICANTLY TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS FOR LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SATURDAY...MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON UP TO 2000 J/KG (SURFACE BASED). HOWEVER MID LAYERS DRY OUT APPRECIABLY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE SATURDAY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS (SLIGHT) IN THE WEST. MORNING STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE THOUGH IF CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH 2 PM...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM BY 4 TO 5 DEGREES. CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY... TREND OF THE GFS MODEL THE PAST FOUR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MAY BE MORE CORRECT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH- NORTHWEST POSITION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT THE LATEST GFS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWERED 10-12M FROM ITS EARLIER VERSIONS. THUS ADJUSTMENTS MADE EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 90 TO 95 DEGREES. AS CENTER OF ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THEN OFFSHORE...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BACK DOOR STYLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING A POP BUT DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY'S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 810 PM... A SOUTH WIND COMPONENT KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS BY SUNSET FRIDAY... RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... WITH BEST CHANCES NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT SUGGEST MINIMAL FOG THREAT... WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SUGGESTS A HIGHER THREAT FOR IFR STRATUS THAN EAST... BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY... THEN NO MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. SOME FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 26-27. RALEIGH-DURHAM AIRPORT (RDU) DATE MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR 26 94 1953 70 2004 27 92 1944 72 1991 PIEDMONT TRIAD AIRPORT (GSO) DATE MAX YEAR HI MIN YEAR 26 93 1953 69 1965 27 95 1941 72 1991 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...BSD/SMITH SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION... CLIMATE...WFO RAH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-280245- FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON- 1042 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN... AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-280245- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM- FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE- HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 1042 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN... AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 77
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:15 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees and power-lines were blown down. Some trees fell onto homes on Reynolds Road and Joyce Norman Road. Monetary damage were estimated.
Several trees were blown down on Highway 52 near Tobaccoville.
Numerous trees were blown down across western portions of Forysth County.
A tree was reported down across SE School Road near Alamance Church Road.
One tree was blown down along NC68 near Oak Ridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 311616, 311617, 311618, 311619, 311620.