Hail in North Carolina, May 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHER ELEVATION DEEP CONVECTION JUST GETTING UNDERWAY AS OF 2 PM AND
WILL STEADILY EXPAND IN CVRG AND MAGNITUDE INTO THIS EVENING. ACRS
THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...FURTHEST AWAY FROM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS...STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TSTMS EXCEED SVR
LIMITS. UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL
STEADILY AS ENERGY EJECTS ENEWARD FROM DIGGING PLAINS CLOSED LOW.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENCROACHING LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS/SFC TROUGH
WILL PLAN ON LINGERING CHANCE POP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...ABOUT 10 DEG F ABOVE THE
MID-MAY NORMAL. AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS LOW WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING
SEWARD FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PLACING THE CWFA UNDER MID/UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW. WOULD EXPECT DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG
ALONG AND NORTH OF LINGERING LLVL CONVERGENCE/SFC TROUGH TO BECOME
NUMEROUS AS MAX TEMPS WARM TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...THE GFS WAS FAVORED OVER THE NAM FOR THE FRI
NGHT THROUGH SUN PERIOD AS THE NAM CUTS OFF TOO MUCH ENERGY JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE 12 UTC UKMET AND THE 00 UTC EC.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...BRING
PCPN INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COUPLE WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVES
CROSS THE REGION. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND I/VE KEPT CHANCE POPS
IN THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MTNS.

THE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY UPPER LOW. WITH GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...A WIND OR HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH HEATING WE RECEIVE.

THE FRONT CROSSES THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS UP
INTO SRN OH. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER NVA AND A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
FORCING THAN INDICATED BY THE GFS AS IT PROBABLY HAS TOO STRONG OF A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE WON/T BE LOW. LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTH AS A
RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM TO ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A COMPLEX
TROUGH...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE GFS MAY BE CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW TOO FAR TO THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY. THE FEATURE CROSSES THE FA ON MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD
INSTABILITY AND FORCING...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF PCPN. THE
CANADIAN AND EC...AND EVEN THE NAM THROUGH 84 HOURS...ARE NOT AS CUT
OFF WITH THIS ENERGY. THAT/S NOT TO SAY THAT THE GFS IS WRONG...BUT
IT/S PROBABLY NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. HPC/S GUIDANCE GRIDS
STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST ON MONDAY. I/VE KEPT THIS AS
EVEN THE WEAKER EC HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE FA.

FOR TUE THE GFS WOULD STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
FA...WHILE THE EC AND CANADIAN BRING THE ENERGY FAR ENOUGH NORTH
THAT THE FA IS LARGELY UNDER A COOL...RATHER CLOUDY BUY MAINLY DRY
PATTERN. THIS IS BASICALLY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON WED AS MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE TROUGH. AGAIN
THE EC IS FARTHER NORTH...BUT EVEN THE GFS/S LOW POSITION...OVER SRN
WV...WOULD LIMIT SHRA TO THE MTNS AND KEEP THE FA QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN NORMAL. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LONGER THAN EXPECTED LINGERING OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN VFR LVL CU BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TSTMS COULD ENCROACH FROM THE NW BY EARLY EVENING. THE NC PIEDMONT
IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VERY MOIST BLYR OVERNIGHT...AND
MVFR CLOUDS COULD REDEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...THE GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM PROBABILITY WILL BE
ACRS NC AND HAVE KEPT CB MENTION FOR KAVL/KHKY. OTHER CONCERNS FOR
THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR BR AND NC
PIEDMONT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS AND DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS THROUGH END OF WEEK. MORNING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN
FELL THE NIGHT BEFORE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH/SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-130815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
401 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

NCZ065-121900-
HENDERSON-
215 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM EDT...

AT 208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETOWAH...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HENDERSONVILLE...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3533 8236 3517 8247 3529 8262 3535 8265
      3538 8255

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

NCZ048-053-122015-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-
333 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANTO...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LEICESTER...WOODFIN...WEAVERVILLE...UNC ASHEVILLE AND SWANNANOA...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3579 8234 3575 8234 3571 8228 3569 8230
      3561 8227 3561 8228 3559 8229 3558 8226
      3553 8226 3556 8268 3564 8284 3580 8282

MOORE