An isolated severe thunderstorm developed along a weak surface trough stretched across eastern portion of North Carolina.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm developed along a weak surface trough stretched across eastern portion of North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 7:45 PM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 845 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY...CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 240 PM... MORNING MODEL RUNS LEFT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO UNCHANGED. NO INDICATION OF 3000 FOOT WINDS INCREASING AT THIS TIME AS INDICATED BY VAD WINDS FROM THE WILMINGTON RADAR. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIRTY PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEST... FIFTY EAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL BUT NOT ZERO... WITH THINLY DISTRIBUTED CAPE PERHAPS NO STRONGER THAN 1300 JOULES. MODERATE INSTABILITY HOWEVER IN AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED. WEAK SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE FROM TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER URBAN AREAS. STILL BELIEVE THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH ITS WINDS AND CONVERGENCE TONIGHT... AND CONVECTION WILL BECOME ISOLATED TO ABSENT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMOKE CURRENTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN SELECT LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR FOG TONIGHT. WITH A LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT... FOG NOT FORECAST TO BE DENSE OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE FEW MILES NEAR ONGOING FIRES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOWER 70S. EXPECTING ENOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY... WITH SOME LOCATIONS PERHAPS FALLING SHORT OF THE MID 80S IN SHOWERS. IN GENERAL... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY... MUCH WETTER TREND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ALONG NC/TN BORDER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WARMER AND WETTER AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. UPSTAIRS AT 500 MB A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS DOWN THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS SHOW MOST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. HAPPY WITH EQUAL CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING FROM AN ALREADY HIGH 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY. FAVORED TIMING FOR RAIN AND CONVECTION DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON COVERAGE BUT A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WOULD BE BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED AREAS BEYOND BOTH ENDS OF THE SCALE. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE TEMPERATURES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. FOR NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INVERTED V SIGNATURES THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS IF RAIN RATES BEGIN TO EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERSHOOT GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES AS OPTIMUM INSOLATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD THAT WILL START OUT WET WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MARCH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND HEADING OUT TO SEA. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DRY OUT FIRST...MAYBE AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA REMAINING WET LONGER INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER BUT THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY FROM THE WEST AND REALLY TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NORTH CAROLINA WILL SAFELY IN BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT OFF SHORE AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY RISING INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY. MINIMUMS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY... SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI IN HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 02Z... BEFORE DIMINISHING DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING/AIRMASS STABILIZATION. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING FROM 08Z-13Z AS WELL. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO ABATE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...CBL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061945- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE PROBABLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MAY TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
NCZ086-088-052145-
CUMBERLAND-HOKE-
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND HOKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...
AT 444 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKFISH...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RAEFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
THE FORT BRAGG MILITARY RESERVATION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...FORT BRAGG...AND...BONNIE DOONE...
SPRING LAKE...FAYETTEVILLE.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.
&&
LAT...LON 3509 7941 3510 7940 3520 7919 3516 7912
3518 7910 3519 7909 3523 7889 3525 7885
3524 7884 3499 7872 3491 7934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 243DEG 14KT 3508 7910
23SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
NCZ084-085-052230-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND AND RICHMOND
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...
AT 538 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DOBBINS HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF ROCKINGHAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOFFMAN...CAMP
MACKALL.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3477 7962 3495 7981 3507 7953 3506 7952
3499 7942 3492 7935 3491 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 242DEG 16KT 3491 7965
KRRSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
NCZ089-060015-
SAMPSON-
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SAMPSON
COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT...
AT 712 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER HARRELLS...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF
WALLACE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HARRELLS...GARLAND AND IVANHOE.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3461 7832 3467 7833 3470 7838 3476 7841
3484 7850 3486 7850 3498 7861 3506 7815
3489 7814 3474 7819 3472 7814 3472 7811
3471 7811 3468 7815 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 258DEG 16KT 3472 7820
KRRSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
NCZ041-042-060100-
JOHNSTON-WAKE-
756 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WAKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...
AT 753 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER GARNER...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...KNIGHTDALE...WENDELL...GARNER...
CLAYTON...EMIT...MICRO...KENLY....FOUR OAKS AND SMITHFIELD.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3588 7837 3577 7825 3562 7813 3561 7813
3557 7808 3540 7818 3527 7845 3543 7861
3545 7862 3552 7869 3553 7876 3558 7884
3590 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 275DEG 15KT 3566 7847
KRRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
828 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0720 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE FUQUAY-VARINA 35.63N 78.73W
07/05/2011 WAKE NC PUBLIC
TREE DOWN ON LAKE WHEELER ROAD
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1101006
SECSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
NCZ042-043-078-060200-
JOHNSTON-WAYNE-WILSON-
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAYNE...JOHNSTON AND WILSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...
AT 900 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SIMS TO PRINCETON TO FOUR OAKS...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TO 10 MILES
EAST OF SMITHFIELD TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NEW HOPE...LUCAMA...
WILSON...PRINCETON...ELM CITY...FREMONT.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 3557 7782 3519 7805 3522 7823 3529 7831
3525 7841 3526 7846 3541 7860 3543 7861
3554 7834 3574 7817 3581 7798 3585 7781
3570 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 270DEG 15KT 3574 7801 3552 7817
3539 7843
KRRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
One tree fell onto a vehicle near NC Highway 581 and Renfrow Road. Extent of vehicle damage is unknown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 331409.