Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1048 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INLAND THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
THE CRYSTAL COAST IS PUSHING OFFSHORE WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE QUICKLY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS...CEDAR ISLAND AND MANTO...ALREADY AT 90F AS OF 10 AM.

WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U90S AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDICIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO
105-110F. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE MAINLY BELOW 110F WARNING
CRITERIA...PLAN TO CONTINUE WARNING AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
COOLING AT NIGHT AND CUMULATIVE HEAT EFFECTS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PUBLIC IMPACT.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PW'S AROUND 2.3" AND LI'S UP TO -9C. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS WELL AS
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WV TO POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR LIFT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN VERY
HIGH...ABOVE 15K FT...SO THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL GDNC SUPPORTS CONVECTIVE THREAT
CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STUCK WITH CHC POPS THROUGH
EVENING. PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS...MAINLY UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...A RESPITE FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WILL OCCUR MON
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE SPRAWLING UPR RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION. HTS FALL ON MON WITH WEAK SFC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NC BY AFTERNOON. SCT THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HEAT
INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA...AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE
MID 90S COMBINED WITH HIGH TD VALS. STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH
THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH AND FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST.

TUE APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CWA...AS SFC FRONT AND UPR LEVEL FORCING REMAIN HERE. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRESENT AS INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH
FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAIN THREAT ISOLATED DOWN BURST WINDS...
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND WASH OUT ON
WED...BRINGING END TO ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...ISO STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WED THROUGH END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO E NC THUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SE OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF
PERIOD. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOPE AGAIN DURING AFTN WITH SCT TSTMS
FORMING ON SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS. UPR LEVEL TROFFING AND SHRT WV
ACTIVITY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO EVENING.

NOTE: KPGV AWOS REPORTING AGAIN AS OF 1015Z...HAD BEEN MISSING SINCE
0015Z.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FOR MON AND
TUE...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. VSBYS WILL
BE REDUCED TO IFR IN THE HEAVY RAIN. RADIATION FOG/BR WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEXT WEEK...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND BNDRY LAYER SATURATED ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...DIAMOND BUOY IS NOW REPORTING
AGAIN AS OF 11Z...AND IS INDICATING SEAS OF 4 FT WITH WINDS AROUND
20 KT. WITH SEAS NOT AS HIGH AS FORECAST HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SIMILAR CONDTIONS TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE BERUMDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT SWLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SRN SECTIONS AND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT
NORTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 430 AM MONDAY...PRES GRAD WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT FOR MON
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
SCA BEING MET...AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP ARE THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INC ON MON AND ESP MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
ACROSS THE WATERS...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HEAVY
RAIN AND DOWN BURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FROM TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...SK/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ095-103-104-250945-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091>094-250945-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ090-250945-
DUPLIN-
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-250945-
ONSLOW-
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.