Deep moisture was in place north and in the vicinity of a stalled l frontal zone as an upper level disturbance moved across the area. An area of heavy rainfall of 3 to 4 inches caused isolated flash flooding in Moore County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Deep moisture was in place north and in the vicinity of a stalled l frontal zone as an upper level disturbance moved across the area. An area of heavy rainfall of 3 to 4 inches caused isolated flash flooding in Moore County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 5:35 AM EST, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 635 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY... SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE EVIDENT THIS MORNING IN INCREASINGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL VAD WIND PROFILES AND 20C+ DEWPOINTS AT 925MB AT KMHX/KCHS. UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WARM ADVECTION CONVECTIVE CELLS OFFSHORE OF KILM ARE RAPIDLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THIS PRECIP IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY A REMNANT WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND ALSO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS THROUGH SUNRISE BASED ON THESE RADAR TRENDS. WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST...WHERE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED...TO THE EAST AS ONSHORE MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES. GIVEN THAT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND AND GIVE WAY TO CONFLUENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM OFFSHORE WHERE PWS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES...FEEL COMFORTABLE RAISING POPS TO LIKELY TODAY. WILL SHOW AND INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL TN/KY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST MODELS SHOW ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MOIST PROFILES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AROUND 20KT AT BEST TODAY...SO DONT EXPECT VERY INTENSE CONVECTION...THOUGH THE THREAT OF A PRECIP LOADED MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE. A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOVEMENT OF INVIDIOUSLY CELLS MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING OF MULTIPLE STORMS AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING VERY TRICKY..DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO JUMP COMPLETELY ON THIS..BUT WILL SHOW SOME UNIFORMITY TO HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS 85-87. CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST DECREASES TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL LIKELY LIE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE...FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...AND A STOUT SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MAY SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH AN UPSWING IN ACTIVITY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS HEIGHT FALLS AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASE. LOWS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM... PRESSURE SURFACES FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISING TO 1.75 TO TWO INCHES WITH WINDS OF FIFTEEN TO TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RELATIVELY AVERAGE INSTABILITY AND CAPE FORECAST ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH OF THE CAPE COULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE MID LEVELS NEAR FREEZING. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY WILL FURTHER LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH PRECIPITATION LOADED WET MICROBURSTS THE THREAT. ENOUGH WIND TO LIKELY LIMIT ANY FLOOD THREAT TO TRAINING ECHOES OR MORE URBAN AREAS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED FOR A SEVENTY PERCENT RAIN CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE NEAR OF EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND AREAS TO THE WEST MAY END UP DRY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIRTY PERCENT RAIN CHANCE NORTHWEST RISING TO FIFTY PERCENT EAST WITH RAIN CHANCES DRYING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES IN THE WEST MONDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIGHT OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST RISK EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE LOW TO MID 80S AND PERHAPS TOO WARM IF CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH. MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 305 AM... UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A MINOR SHORT WAVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL BE IN THE WEST BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH AND INCREASE. WITH WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNIFORM FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND LOW CAPE... AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES NO MORE THAN THIRTY PERCENT. SOME INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE EVENT IS SIX DAYS OUT... WILL HOLD POPS AT THIRTY PERCENT FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 635 AM SATURDAY... INCREASINGLY ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECTED THE STRATUS TO BREAK AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND 3K FT TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEATING THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD KRDU AND KRWI. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BEFORE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PATCHY STRATUS SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS. HAVE SCATTERED CEILINGS IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SUNDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && NEAR TERM...SMITH AVIATION...SMITH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 404 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-140815- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 404 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
923 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
NCZ075-086-131415-
HOKE-MOORE-
923 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOORE AND HOKE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...
AT 923 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SOUTHERN PINES...
WHISPERING PINES...VASS.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH.
AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.
&&
LAT...LON 3520 7957 3539 7929 3535 7927 3530 7919
3527 7922 3525 7919 3524 7916 3521 7915
3520 7910 3518 7910 3505 7945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 238DEG 8KT 3517 7941
VINCENTThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:24 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 4 inches caused several roads to flood in Aberdeen. Emergency responders had to perform a water rescue at 840 am EST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 339907.