Hail in North Carolina, April 9, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1134 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WW# 110 REPLACES WW# 107. WW#110 IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5AM FOR THE WESTERN CWA. CAPE IS WANING...400 J/KG
AT 11PM COMPARED TO THE 1000 J/KG EARLIER. HAD TO DELAY THE
RELEASE OF THE RNK UPPER AIR BY AN HOUR DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE WX STATION. MAIN CONVERGENCE STILL FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN CWA
WHERE WESTERLY LLJ IS INTERSECTING SFC BOUNDARY WHICH RUNS FROM
SE-NW ALONG A GSO-BLF-JKL LINE. 0-3KM SR- HELICITY IS NEAR
400...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL
STORMS THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THE
WEST SIDE OF PULASKI AND ALONG INTERSTATE 81 AT THE DRAPER
INTERCHANGE...EXIT 92. SEVERAL HOMES HAVE BEEN
DESTROYED...INCLUDING THE BP GAS STATION AT EXIT 92. THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF MINOR INJURIES...SEARCH AND RESCUE IS STILL
ONGOING. A SHELTER HAS BEEN SET UP AT THE PULASKI ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT...AT
LEAST FOR THE WESTERN CWA WHERE WESTERLY CONVERGENCE OF HIGH
THETA E AIR FROM THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE LATE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...COOL AIR WITH SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE PASSES...THE WEDGE REALLY GETS LOCKED IN AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT INTESIFIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.

FOR SATURDAY STRONG WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY. I
HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW VA PIEDMONT WHERE THE WEDGE MAY HOLD
ALL DAY LONG. I BRING SCT TSTMS INTO THE FAR WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON- LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHATEVER SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIR...SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEAK SW-NE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH. EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
ON SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPENING
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COMBINE TO BRING STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING WEDGE EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS H85 TEMPS JUMP INTO THE
+12 TO +16 RANGE. GUIDANCE AND THICKNESS TOOLS YIELDING HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FULL SUN. EVEN IF
CLOUDS BREAK UP A LITTLE LATER TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A RAPID
WARMUP WITH DAYTIME MIXING. MILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW AND TEMPS MAINLY 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM
COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD AND ALONG OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR
WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST SUNDAY. SPC
ALREADY HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 3 IN THIS AREA..AN INDICATION OF
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATER MONDAY ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
TIMING FOR THIS FROPA IS MAINLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY WHICH WOULD LESSEN
CHANCES FOR SEVERE...BUT 6 TO 12 HOURS EARLIER AND CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPS WITH MEX GUIDANCE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABV NORMAL..COMPROMISED WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER MET/MEH GUIDANCE GIVING
STILL MID-80S EAST AND NEAR 80 WEST.

AFTER FRONT PASSES EARLY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABV CLIMO FOR
MID-APRIL..GENERALLY UPPER 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST. NEXT FRONT REACHES
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. FOLLOWING HPC IN THE GRIDS
TO KEEP THAT FROPA JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG BACKDOOR COLD
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...COVERAGE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT WITH
COOL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND
FOG. THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MODELS INSISTING ON WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS AGAIN ALONG WHAT REMAINS
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS
WILL BE IN THE WRN MTNS FOR THE MOST PART...AND MAY AFFECT
BLUEFIELD...BLACKSBURG AND LEWISBURG. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A CHC OF LATE DAY TSTMS TO ALL
AREAS. VFR THEN RETURNS ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AND A FEW -SHRA OVER SE WVA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/JJ
NEAR TERM...JH/JJ/PM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1142 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015>017-032-043-WVZ042-100345-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-HENRY-MERCER-
1142 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL COULD STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. REFERENCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 110.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ006-VAZ014-018>020-022>024-033>035-044>047-058-059-WVZ043>045-
100345-
CASWELL-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1142 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1140 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     HAIL             TAZEWELL                37.12N 81.52W
04/08/2011  E0.50 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IS REPORTING DIME SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY FALLING IN
            TAZEWELL.

&&

NFILLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1143 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             5 E STUART              36.64N 80.20W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       PATRICK            VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

CHENARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1159 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW WENTWORTH          36.36N 79.80W
04/08/2011                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BAKER CROSSROAD ROAD.

&&

CHENARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1206 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     HAIL             TAZEWELL                37.12N 81.52W
04/08/2011  E0.75 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT 911 CENTER.

&&

CHENARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1213 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

NCZ004-090430-
STOKES NC-
1213 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STOKES COUNTY...

AT 1211 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
KING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GERMANTON AROUND 1220 AM...GERMANTON AROUND
1225 AM AND BELLEWS LAKE AROUND 1230 AM.

LAT...LON 3626 8034 3626 8037 3631 8045 3633 8045
      3646 8032 3629 8003 3626 8004 3625 8034

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     HAIL             PULASKI                 37.05N 80.80W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CHENARD