An upper level low pressure system continued to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of central New York as it moved east and away from the area. A few storms produced hail and damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
An upper level low pressure system continued to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of central New York as it moved east and away from the area. A few storms produced hail and damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 2:48 PM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 348 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS INCREASING AGAIN. MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE. MODELS DRY OUT ENOUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS OPEN CELLULAR CU DISSIPATES...HOWEVER HIGH LVL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REFORM INTO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WRN CATS/POCONOS WHICH WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF LIGHT UPSLOPE MARINE LAYER FLOW. NAM/GFS SUGGESTED SOME LGT QPF. IT STILL COULD OCCUR...BUT THE PROBABILITIES SEEM LOW AND IT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WILL SPREAD MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM AND CMC REGIONAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES. LEANED A BIT CLOSER TO THE NAM/CMC BLEND WHICH WILL GIVE US A PRECIOUS FEW HOURS OF MAINLY DRY WX DURING THE MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING IS WEAK WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SO THIS SHOULD BE JUST A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH NO HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SVRL MINOR IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTED MOISTURE PLUME. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NAM/GFS MODELS TO BE MOVING THROUGH CNTRL NY. CONVECTIVE PARAMTERS INCREASE IN THE MODELS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE FCST. 850 MB TEMP RULES WERE FOLLOWED FOR MAX TEMPS AND MATCHED CLOSELY TO A BLENDED MAV/MET/GMOS/MEX MOS BLEND. MIN TEMPS ARE A BLENDED MOS. MONDAY NIGHT/TUE... CDFNT XPCTD TO MOVE INTO WRN NY BY DAYBREAK TUE...AS S/WV TROF APRCHS FROM THE GTLAKES. BEST FORCING DUE TO THE UPR LVL WAVE WILL BE ACRS CNTRL NY...WHERE WE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA. CHC POPS REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. CDFNT PASSES THE RGN ON TUE...MOVING INTO PA BY AFTN. IS THIS SCENARIO HOLDS OUT...XPCT IMPRVG CONDITIONS ACRS MOST OF CNTRL NY WITH THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE MRNG. ACRS NE PA...RETAINED CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. MAXES FROM THE L/M 70S ACRS CNTRL NY TO ARND 80 FAR SE ZONES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS UNSETTLED AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A BOUNDARY LURKING NEAR US AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE THREE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT SOME POINT WE WILL SEE LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...TRYING TO TIME ANYTHING OUT AT THIS POINT IS FOOLISH GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF THE MODELS TO FLIP/FLOP. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING UNSETTLED THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOAST TEMPS INTO THE 70S...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFFECTING RME/BGM AND AVP THIS AFTN. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR LATER TNGT W/RESPECT TO REDVLPMNT OF STRATUS AND FOG. MOST AREAS WILL SEE JUST BKN200 THIS EVNG. ATTM THINK WE'LL SEE SOME VLY FOG DVLP DUE TO LIGHT BL WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. HOWEVER...SELY FLOW ABV THE BL PICKS UP LATER TNGT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT LOW LVL LMSTR MAY BCM ENTRAINED IN THAT FLOW. DIFFS IN THE MDLS GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO ABV SCENARIOS BUT LCL WRF RUN AND RUC PROFILES SUGGEST LOWER CLDS/FOG LIKELY LATER TNGT. WE DID SEE SOME LOW CLDS AND FOG ACRS WRN PA AND NY THIS MRNG...SO FOR NOW INDICATED DVLPMNT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES AFTER 06Z TNGT. XPCT BETTER CHC FOR SHRA TO HOLD OFF AFTER 18Z ON SUN AND DID NOT MENTION IN THIS PCKG. WINDS THIS AFTN GNRLY N TO NW 5-10 KTS...L&V OR LGT ERLY TNGT...THEN BECMG S TO SELY ON SUN ARND 10 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUN AFTN/SUN NGT...MVFR IN SHRA. MON/MON NGT...MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. TUE...MVFR NE PA IN SHRA/TSRA. BECMG VFR CNTRL NY. TUE NGT/WED...MVFR IN SHRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB/NWS LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 349 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-222000- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN- SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO- OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 349 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. JAB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011
NYZ009-037-212100-
ONEIDA NY-
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLORENCE...
* AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CAMDEN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FLORENCE AT 430 PM EDT...
CAMDEN AT 450 PM EDT...
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
LAT...LON 4343 7555 4343 7552 4341 7549 4321 7587
4323 7588 4332 7586 4333 7588 4335 7588
4347 7583 4348 7581
HEDENThe Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 43 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:36 UTC.
4 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail covered the ground and was still on the ground about 5 hours later at a house on Walker Road.
Tree limbs were blown down. Nickel size hail lasted about 10 minutes and covered the ground. Hail was still on the ground at 7 pm EDT.
Penny size hail covered the ground. Some lawn furniture was blown around, with estimated winds of 30 to 40 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 306010, 306016, 306011, 306013, 306014.