A stalled frontal system provided the focus for prolonged rainfall from May 15 to May 17. and ran off into rivers that remained swollen from above normal springtime rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A stalled frontal system provided the focus for prolonged rainfall from May 15 to May 17. Over two inches of rain fell on saturated soils...and ran off into rivers that remained swollen from above normal springtime rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 9:20 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... BRINGING THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/... AS OF 1008 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 00Z TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STALLED 850-700MB FRONTAL ZONE BISECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES GENERALLY AROUND 0.10". THE 850MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY THRU 06Z...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS APPEARS TO REDUCE THE OVERALL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND ANTICIPATE THE STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST SECTIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE PERIODIC IN NATURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS ON MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS SRN VT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK. THUS...WHILE PRECIPITATION WON/T BE AS CONTINUOUS MONDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASED RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY WITH THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS THEY ADVANCE NWD LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT ASFN6 AND EXPECTED TO REACH A MINOR FLOOD CREST AROUND 7.4' OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THUS FAR HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIVER BASINS OF NY/VT. SOME RAINFALL AMTS SINCE SATURDAY MORNING THUS FAR FOR THIS EVENT INCLUDE 2.11" AT KSLK...1.97" AT K1V4...1.51" AT KBTV...AND 1.51" AT KPBG. A COUPLE MESONET STATIONS ARE OVER 2" ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. OF NOTE: IT APPEARS RADAR DERIVED PCPN IS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE ACTUAL RAINFALL...PERHAPS DUE TO SMALL RAINDROP SIZES. THE ACTUAL RAIN IS IN MAIN CASES TWICE THAT ESTIMATED BY EITHER KTYX OR KCXX. IN ANY EVENT...AN ADDITIONAL 0.25"-0.5" IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS 850MB FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION IS PROBABLY THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR FLOODING CONCERNS NEXT 12-24 HRS...FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. IT APPEARS AUSABLE FORKS /ASFN6/ REACHES FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6Z...AND THE UPPER PASSUMPSIC BASIN AND GREAT CHAZY SHOULD BE RUNNING NEAR BANKFUL OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY N-NE WINDS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST LWR VLY AND NRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WIND REGIME LIGHTENS UP A BIT ON MONDAY. TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW MUCH RANGE...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY 45-55 DEGREES...A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR MID MAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD. VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEP ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS UNIFORM IN NATURE DUE TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PCPN. WITH HIGH PW/S IN PLACE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RA MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE WITH FAVORABLE SE UPSLOPE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 208 PM EDT SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAINY WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN IT ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH VERY COLD POOL ALOFT AND SOME MODEST SURFACE INSTABILITY. WE WILL CERTAINLY KNOW MUCH BETTER AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL MIN TEMPS AS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STEADY RAIN. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE AT MSS WHERE CHANNELING EFFECTS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CREATE GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT AT TIMES THIS EVENING. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE AREA BUT WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN RATHER THAN STEADY PCPN WITH GRADUAL IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED AND SHOWERY PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. CIGS VFR/MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...RAIN FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BRINGING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON MONAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW- MOVING UPPER LOW. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NY...AS WELL AS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. REFER TO FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT AND ANY ONGOING WARNING/ADVISORY STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS HYDRO THREAT EVOLVES. SPECIFIC RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONDITIONS FORECASTS CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BTV...THEN CLICK ON /RIVERS AND LAKES/. && .MARINE... AS OF 640 PM EDT SUNDAY... LAKE LEVEL: THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE LEVEL HAD BEEN STEADILY LOWERING FROM ITS RECORD HEIGHT NEAR 103.20 FEET ESTABLISHED ON THE MORNING OF MAY 6TH. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE THE LAKE HAS LEVELED OFF NEAR 102.0 TO 102.1 FEET OWING TO THE 1-2" RAINFALL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN BASIN SINCE SATURDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT RISE IN LAKE LEVEL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM BASIN RIVERS AND STREAMS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR A RENEWED CREST AROUND 102.50 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...MAY 25TH. THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED ON CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS AND COULD CHANGE BASED ON ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE ANTICIPATED RISE AND CREST IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MAY 6TH...AS SEASONAL INCREASE IN ACTIVE VEGETATION AND REDUCED MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT RESULT IN LESS AVAILABLE RUNOFF. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND/WAVE FORECAST: A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY /AROUND 10-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND AROUND 5-15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY/. WAVES OF 1-3 FT ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AND LOWERING FURTHER TO 1 FOOT OR LESS ON TUESDAY. SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WAVE ACTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH FACING SHORELINES. THE LAKE LEVEL WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE (2-5 INCHES) DUE TO CHANNELING/SEICHE EFFECTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FLOODING CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...PLEASE VISIT HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BTV/LAKE/FLOODINFO.PHP (MUST USE LOWER CASE) FOR BOATERS...MANY HAZARDS SUCH AS BREAKWATER AND OTHER ROCKS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO NAVIGATION MAY BE OBSCURED BY THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...HIGH FLOW FROM RIVERS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS DELIVERED PLENTY OF DEBRIS INTO THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER MOUTHS. LASTLY...THE NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPERATURE HAS ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE 40S...WHICH COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HYPOTHERMIC CONDITIONS IF FALLING IN THE WATER. DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS...RECREATIONAL BOATING IS DISCOURAGED AT THIS TIME. && .CLIMATE... BTV IS FAST APPROACHING THE WETTEST METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY) ON RECORD. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 15.46 INCHES WAS SET IN THE SPRING OF 1983. AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY (5/15)...BTV HAS SEEN 14.86 INCHES THIS SPRING WHICH IS CURRENTLY 2ND PLACE. WITH CONTINUED RAIN OVERNIGHT...A NEW SPRING RAINFALL RECORD MAY BE ESTABLISHED MONDAY MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VTZ002>009-016>018. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES/SLW HYDROLOGY... MARINE... CLIMATE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 435 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ002>009-016>018-160845- NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN- EASTERN ADDISON- 435 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VTZ001-010>012-019-160845- GRAND ISLE-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND- 435 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MIDWEEK. AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall along a stalled frontal system caused minor flooding along the East Branch of the Ausable River. The river gage at Ausable Forks NY went above flood stage at 00:30 AM EST on May 16, and crested at 7.34 feet at 03:00 AM EST on the 16th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 309025.