Rainfall of 2 to 3 inches over a 2 day period caused minor flooding on the Kennebec River at Skowhegan.
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The episode as NWS GYX wrote it up.
Rainfall of 2 to 3 inches over a 2 day period caused minor flooding on the Kennebec River at Skowhegan.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 5:50 AM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 650 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE S AND W OF NEW ENGLAND ALL WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LKLY CATEGORY THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER TO SCT -SHRA BY MIDDAY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AND RADAR IMAGES DOWNSTREAM SUGGEST POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. REST OF THE GRIDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO DO A SUPERIOR JOB ON THE FORECAST WINDS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS FIELDS ARE MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND IS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASH- OVER ALONG NE FACING BEACHES IN YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF THE MID/LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE. PREV DISC... SURFACE WAVE HAS FORMED IN THE GULF OF MAINE. IT APPEARS THE NAM12 HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWERING POPS BY NOONTIME ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE RFC QPF FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE NUDGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PATCHY FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A HEAVIER BATCH OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING. IN ANY EVENT...BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS PSBL IN ANY SHOWERS COMING IN OFF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING. USED A BLEND OF COOLER MET NOS WITH MILDER MAV MINS/MAXES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEK ALLOWING LOW PRES TO REMAIN QSTNRY OVER THE LWR OHIO VLY. THIS BASICALLY MEANS A RAW DAMP WEEK WITH A RAW ELY FLOW THRU THE WEEK WITH SHWRS AT TIMES AND ALSO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. TEMPS TO BE BLO NORMAL AND HAVE A SMALL DIRNAL RANGE THRU THE WEEK. TOWARD THE WEEKEND TEMPS TO SLOLY MODERATE. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CONDS NEAR AND AROUND THE COAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY BE MVFR CONDS FOR PERIODS OF WESTERN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM...A CONTINUED ONSHORE MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IFR CONDS IN SCT SHWRS AND LIFR CONDS AT TIMES IN PATCHY AREAS OF DRZL AND FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...USED NAM12 FOR WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OTHER AVBL GUIDNC. WINDS EVEN GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE HIGHER PLATFORMS THIS MORNING. USED HIGHER SWAN NAM GUIDNC FOR SEAS. LONG TERM...A CONTINUED ELY FLOW WILL BECOME SELY LATE IN THE WEEK. SCA CRIT WINDS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-8 FT RANGE IN THE OUTER WATERS THRU THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... PLENTY WET ALL WEEK...WITH FUELS NOT BEING AN ISSUE. && .HYDROLOGY... HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KBEC RIVER IN SKOWHEGAN. AUGUSTA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR LATER TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DAY SHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z GUIDNC PKG TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCHES. RIVERS REMAIN HIGH AND CLIMBING. RIGHT NOW THE SWIFT RIVER IN ROXBURY AND THE KENNEBEC RIVER IN SKOWHEGAN HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO REACH FLOOD. && .TIDES... UPDATE...HAVE ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASH-OVER IN YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH...AND ABOVE MOST AVBL GUIDNC. TIDES RAN ABOUT .6 FEET ABV THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING LAST NIGHTS HIGH TIDE IN PORTLAND HARBOR. EXPECT THE SAME FOR THIS MORNING...AS COASTAL WAVE SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEPART THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER IN YORK AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. LOOK FOR THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH TONIGHT...REACHING 11.6 FEET IN PWM HARBOR AT AROUND 11 PM. FS IS 12 FEET. EXPECT THE TIDE TO PEAK OUT AROUND 12 FEET. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FLOOD ISSUES IN HAMPTON AND PERHAPS THE WHARFS IN PWM...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A MINOR EVENT. IF HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED...WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW WFO BOX RULE OF THUMB TO USE "COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY" HEADLINES FOR MINOR EVENTS. AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. GFS BASED ET SURGE GUIDNC REMAINS POOR FOR THIS EVENT...UNDERESTIMATING OUR STORM SURGE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 247 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 MEZ007>009-012>014-NHZ001>004-170700- NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD- SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS- NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL- 247 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. MEZ018>028-NHZ005>010-013-014-170700- INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC- INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN- KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN- MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM- 247 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ150>154-170700- STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY- PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY- CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM- 247 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused minor flooding on the Kennebec River at Skowhegan (flood stage 35,000 cfs), which crested at 40,800 cfs.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maine in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Maine, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 313368.