Flooding in Nebraska, January 10 to 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
532 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. CONDTIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KGRI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KUEX WSR-88D SHOWS THE SNOW IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THAT WILL HELP IMPROVE CIGS
AND VSBYS AT KGRI. THAT BEING SAID...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL STILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THAT SHOULD MAKE BLOWING SNOW
LESS OF AN ISSUE AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  FOCUS IS ON OUR
CURRENT SNOW EVENT WINDING DOWN...FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.  AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WITH THE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.  IN
THE MID LEVELS A CLOSED H7 CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.  LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUED ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH RADAR INDICATING THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL ROUGHLY FROM VALENTINE TO MCCOOK
NEBRASKA.  LIFT IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WRAPAROUND ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHIFTS
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE LIGHT
SNOW RAPIDLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY TO 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL BE STEADY BUT LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST
UNTIL THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE 1040MB SURFACE RIDGE EDGES
FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS.  THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE 5 TO
12 INCHES OF RECENTLY FALLEN SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND RECENTLY
FALLEN SNOW.  CLOUDS LOOK TO BREAK UP WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING TOWARD MORNING.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO...ROUGHLY RANGING FROM -10 TO -3 NW/SE.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STEADY WINDS WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS OF -20 TO NEAR -30 TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THESE
EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RISE VERY LITTLE IN CONTINUED CAA
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.  EVEN COLDER AIR SETTLES IN DURING
THE AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -18 TO -20C IN OUR NORTHEAST.
TEMPS WILL RISE VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IF WE ARE LUCKY...THEN READINGS WILL PLUMMET MORE SO
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FROM
THE NW.  HAVE RANGED LOWS FROM -7 TO -15 FOR NOW AND EVEN WITH LESS
WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL AGAIN AVERAGE -20 TO -30 DEGREES.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND WILL HOLD ONTO THIS
UNTIL THE SNOW COMES TO AN END.  OUR CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
STARTS AT 6 PM AND CARRIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  WILL ALSO NEED A
WIND CHILL HEADLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL ADDRESS THIS ONE DAY AT A TIME.  THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO AS WELL.

LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS
INVOLVE CONTINUED BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PCPN NEXT WEEKEND.

STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY STORY...WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA FCST
TO RANGE BETWEEN -20 AND -30F. AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM DISC
ABOVE...LIKELY WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
HANDLED AT A LATER TIME. LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND A
TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST...WHICH
EVOLVES FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW IN
THE LAST 48 HOURS.

WHILE WED AND THURS ARE LOOKING DRY UNDER THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW AVERAGE AS AN EXPANSIVE
1045MB SFC HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES EAST FROM THE HEART OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR HIGHS WED...KEPT MOST AREAS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH PARTS OF KS ZONES STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF
CRACKING 10 DEGREES. FOR THURSDAY...A TRANSITION TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL TRY TO BRING A SLIGHT REBOUND...BUT
WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW UNDER 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW...AM IN NO
HURRY TO GO WITH AN AGGRESSIVE WARMUP...AND UNDERCUT 00Z MEX
GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST 10 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO POSSIBLY UPPER 20S FAR
SOUTHWEST. YET ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE COULD BE NECESSARY WED
NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FCST VALUES FALLING BELOW -20F ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEB CWA. FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT...WILL KEEP ALL
AREAS ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF ZERO...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 7 TO
14 ABOVE AND FINALLY ENDING THE PROLONGED RISK OF HEADLINE WORTHY
WIND CHILLS.

ON FRI/FRI NIGHT...12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIVING A
FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT ANY PCPN WITH THIS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY A PASSING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. FOR
HIGHS FRI CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT...BUT MUCH OF THE
CWA SHOULD AT LEAST CRACK THE 20S...WITH 30S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST.

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL SYSTEM DIVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING LIFT DUE IN PART FROM A COUPLED
H3 JET STRUCTURE FROM AN ENTRANCE REGION FEEDING ONE SEGMENT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN EXIT REGION APPROACHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LOCAL PCPN CHANCES WITH
IT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS TO SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW...MAINLY OVER NEB ZONES...AND ONLY A COUPLE INCHES AT BEST.
THE ONLY CATCH WOULD BE IF ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TO RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT WITH THIS BEING 6 DAYS OUT WILL KEEP IT SNOW FOR NOW
WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.

ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES COULD PROMOTE
LIGHT PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL...OPTED TO KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEAK FORCING. TEMP
WISE...WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ANY
ONE DAY BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN ANOTHER...CURRENTLY HAVE FRIDAY
BEING THE WARMEST DAY...AND EVEN THIS ONLY FEATURES 20S TO LOWER
30S AT BEST. AS LONG AS THIS SNOWPACK STICKS AROUND...A
PESSIMISTIC TREND IN UPCOMING HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
EXIST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
315 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO -20 TO
-29 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR
WIND CHILL READINGS OF -20 TO -29 DEGREES.

WIND CHILL READINGS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DROP TO -20 TO -29 TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ORD...TO HASTINGS...TO
SUPERIOR WILL SEE YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OF
-20 TO -29 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
613 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     SNOW             4 N HASTINGS            40.65N 98.39W
01/10/2011  M11.6 INCH       ADAMS              NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT MEASURED AT 6
            PM.

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     SNOW             GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT    40.97N 98.32W
01/10/2011  M11.0 INCH       HALL               NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SO FAR FOR THIS EVENT MEASURED AT 6
            PM.

&&

NWS