High Wind in Nebraska, April 29, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
316 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE GUSTY
WINDS.  CURRENTLY DO NOT BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
BEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA COULD STILL SEE SOME PRECIP. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING. CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING DUE
TO FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES OVER THE CWA.  AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
CWA...THE WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN THE THE RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THOSE AREAS.  THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE
MORNING.  WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS A
RESULT.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP. WILL RANGE FROM A POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING TO
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES START AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL TO THE WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TREK EAST...MOVING
OVER THE AREA AND ENDING THE PRECIP. CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
316 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PRECIPITATION DURING A COUPLE DAYS.

GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE TROUGH THAT WILL START OUT THIS PERIOD.  ECMWF IS TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS AND ITS MEMBERS WITH HAVING THE TROUGH SKIRT THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER
THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING IT OUT AND SLOWING DOWN WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE
MOVING IT EASTWARD.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  PLACED SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE.  THE GFS AND ITS MEMBERS AGREE WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  THE ECMWF MOVES THIS TROUGH FASTER AND NOT AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS RUN.  CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
PRECEDE THIS TROUGH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL UNTIL FRIDAY.

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
538 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST AT BOTH LOCATIONS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. FOR THE NEXT 5-6 HOURS...EXPECT
WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY...UP TO 35-40 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
COME DOWN BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY. AFT 14Z...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK
BACK UP AGAIN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT AT BOTH
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BAS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
316 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

SATURDAY DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LOW THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE.
HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH.

JTL
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
330 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011 /430 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE RESULTED IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON
REACHING A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND KANSAS AND CHEYENNE WELLS
COLORADO LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE MCCOOK             40.23N 100.58W
04/29/2011  M53 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

&&

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST OBERLIN                 39.82N 100.53W
04/29/2011  M48 MPH          DECATUR            KS   MESONET

            MEASURED AT OBERLIN AWOS.

&&

JRM