Montana, 2011

High Wind in Montana, May 14 to 15, 2011

May 14 to 15, 2011 · NWS TFX · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

High surface pressure over Canada as well as low surface pressure along the Rocky Mountain Front resulted in a strong easterly flow at the surface. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph were reported.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

High surface pressure over Canada as well as low surface pressure along the Rocky Mountain Front resulted in a strong easterly flow at the surface. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph were reported.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 4:50 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 4:50 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTH...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. OVER THE NORTH...THE WINDS
WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...BECOMING STRONG AT RIDGE TOPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASING AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LEWISTOWN...FORT BENTON AND HAVRE
AREAS. IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN...AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY
MONDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE 6000
FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST ON MONDAY...WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE CUT BANK REGION. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH SLOWLY BRINGING A DEEPENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
HAVE RAISED POPS SOMEWHAT BUT PRECIP LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE SHOWERY
SO IT REMAINS TOUGH TO REALLY MAKE A STRONG CALL ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL EXIST THROUGH MID MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST...SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SO
KEPT THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
FOR A FEW OF THE DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
INTENSITY OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BUT TIMING LOOKS FAIRLY EVEN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE IN OVER ALL OF MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF A KMSO-KWYS LINE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS (BASES MOSTLY
040-060 AGL) WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING AREAS OF MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS - INCLUDING KHLN AND KBZN)...BUT THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 50 KT AT
TIMES IN THE EAST (KHVR KLWT). CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEW REPORT TODAY FROM BOTH THE SMITH RIVER SOUTH OF ULM...AND BELT
CREEK IN THE BELT AREA SAYS THAT BOTH STREAMS HAVE RISEN QUITE A
BIT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STREAMS EXCEEDING BANKFULL IN A FEW
PLACES. MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES IN JUDITH BASIN AND
FERGUS COUNTY AS WELL. THUS THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  67  44  64 /   0  10  20  30
CTB  33  64  38  62 /   0  10  30  30
HLN  38  69  43  62 /  10  10  30  30
BZN  36  68  40  62 /  20  20  30  30
WEY  30  58  32  46 /  40  50  60  30
DLN  37  67  37  55 /  30  30  40  30
HVR  37  66  41  69 /   0  10  10  20
LWT  34  60  39  64 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT BLAINE...CHOUTEAU...FERGUS...HILL...LIBERTY.

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR
CASCADE...FERGUS...AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 1:15 PM MST, 6 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

MTZ051-151200-
FERGUS-
215 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

MTZ008>010-014-015-044-046-048-049-052>055-151200-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-
EASTERN PONDERA-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
215 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ011-013-045-047-151200-
HILL-CHOUTEAU-LIBERTY-BLAINE-
215 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

MTZ012-050-151200-
CASCADE-JUDITH BASIN-
215 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Event by event

6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Gallatin

When
May 14, 7:36 PM MST
Where
Gallatin forecast zone
Measured
54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Public

A wind gust to 62 mph was reported at Belgrade 6ENE.

High Wind, Fergus

When
May 15, 3:50 PM MST
Where
Fergus forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Trained Spotter

A wind gust to 65 mph was reported at Lewistown 2E.

High Wind, Blaine

When
May 15, 4:00 PM MST to 7:00 PM MST
Where
Blaine forecast zone
Measured
39 kt (45 mph) estimated sustained
Reported by
Trained Spotter

Sustained winds of 45 mph were reported at Lodge Pole 16NNW.

High Wind, Chouteau

When
May 15, 4:29 PM MST
Where
Chouteau forecast zone
Measured
59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Public

A wind gust to 68 mph was reported at Big Sandy 13W.

High Wind, Cascade

When
May 15, 5:00 PM MST
Where
Cascade forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Trained Spotter

A wind gust to 65 mph was reported at Highwood 7SW.

High Wind, Hill

When
May 15, 6:12 PM MST to 9:12 PM MST
Where
Hill forecast zone
Measured
43 kt (49 mph) estimated sustained
Reported by
Trained Spotter

Sustained wind speeds greater than 50 mph were reported at Rocky Boy 7SE.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, May 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 316803, 316799, 316794, 316792, 316788, 316785.