Thunderstorms gradually increased in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along a weakly convergent cold front moving through the area. The warm sector air mass was characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 70's, dew points in the lower 60's, and mixed-layer cape values of 1000 to 1500 j/kg.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Thunderstorms gradually increased in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along a weakly convergent cold front moving through the area. The warm sector air mass was characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 70's, dew points in the lower 60's, and mixed-layer cape values of 1000 to 1500 j/kg. Very strong deep layer wind shear promoted organized storm structures. A bowing line segment organized east of Poplar Bluff, then produced isolated wind damage as it moved toward the Mississippi River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 3:18 PM CST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 318 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT AND CUMMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PER TORNADO WATCH 881 TIL 10 PM. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES HAD INCREASED BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND/IN EXCESS OF 300 ACROSS S IL AND SW IN SO QUITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHEASTWARD PROPOGATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. A 500MB SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNEDAY LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IN AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. THE END RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES HERE...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FA. HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF THROUGH TUESDAY. TWEEKED TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN...DOWN A BIT THRU TUE NIGHT. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE QUAD STATE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THURSDAY MORNING HAVING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ENOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY TO PRODUCE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC CONVEYOR BELT /NEAR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE/...PER THE PREFERRED ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED VIA THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...SO UTILIZED A DIFFERENTIAL BLEND OF POPS FOR SHOWERS VERSUS THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST ARE NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS ELEVATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO ADDED A DIFFERENTIAL POP FOR SHOWERS VERSUS THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. BY NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND SHARPENS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .AVIATION... EARLIER TAF FORECASTS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH WINDS AND CEILINGS...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MEASURABLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE KCGI TAF SITE WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY...SO INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN THE 11Z-14Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE WORST CONDITIONS...LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR KPAH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && AVIATION/NEAR TERM...SMITH PUBLIC...SHANKLIN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 708 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-151315- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 708 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PERRYVILLE TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS BUT ALSO WITH A REMOTE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH TODAY COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY THOSE MOTORISTS TRAVELLING ON EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS. BOATERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ON AREA WATERWAYS TODAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE LEAVES CLOG DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 423 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 MOZ086-087-100-110-142245- BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-STODDARD MO-WAYNE MO- 423 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WAYNE...NORTHERN STODDARD...SOUTHWESTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU AND SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 445 PM CST... AT 421 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHOOK...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE WAPPAPELLO LAKE AREA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... ADVANCE... GRASSY... LEOPOLD... BELL CITY... ZALMA... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 456 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 ILZ084-088-092-093-MOZ087-111-142330- ALEXANDER IL-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-JACKSON IL-PULASKI IL-SCOTT MO-UNION IL- 456 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ALEXANDER...WESTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND EXTREME SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN SCOTT AND EASTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 530 PM CST... AT 451 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUTCHTOWN...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCOTT CITY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... CAPE GIRARDEAU... WARE... DONGOLA... COMMERCE... EAST CAPE GIRARDEAU... THEBES... MILL CREEK... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:59 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust to 62 mph was measured by the Cape Girardeau airport automated observing system. There was a report of minor window and door damage.
Quarter-sized hail fell near the junction of U.S. Highway 67 and Highway M.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 350115, 350113.