Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, June 9, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/237 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011/

FCST FOCUS WILL REMAIN TSRA CHANCE THRU THE WEEKEND.

OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE WASHED OUT
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CU TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION...EXCEPT
FOR THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE OUTFLOW WHERE SELY WINDS N OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE HELPING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

TSRA ACTIVITY SHUD LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES WITH
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND WRMFNT LIFTING NWD AS WELL. WILL
KEEP BULK OF THE POPS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SOME
CHANCES INTO CNTL MO.

THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER S CNTL KS WILL MOVE NEWD WITH ADJACENT
CDFNT GRADUALLY MOVING SWD THRU THE CWA SOMETIME FRI. MDLS
INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FNT ON
SAT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE FNT S OF THE CWA BY SAT EVENING. THIS
SHUD ALLOW FOR A COOLER WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.

A WRMFNT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NWD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS A S/W ROUNDS
THE TOP OF THE UPR RIDGE. THIS S/W SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE
INDUCED AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT LOW BECAUSE OF
THAT. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MDL CONSENSUS...IS DIFFICULT TO RULE
OUT.

FOR THE EXTD...MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES. AMOUNT OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE GEM HAVING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TSRA WITH FNTS. TRIED TO TAKE A BLEND OF MDLS
FOR THE EXTD...WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FIND A COMPLETELY DRY
PERIOD WITH THE NUMBERS OF SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA.
THE BULK OF THE POPS ARE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SYSTEMS.

NEXT WEEKS SHUD START OFF RATHER COOL...BUT TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY
MODERATE. TRENDED TWD THE WARMER MOS AS ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1235 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011/

CERTAINLY APPEARS N MO WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS POINT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM IRK TO JUST NE OF MCI
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT UIN AREA.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STJ AND COU
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INTERACT
WITH STG SFC CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALSO
WORKING INTO UIN AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS N
AND/OR NE OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH PASSED THROUGH STL AND COU THIS
MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
BE SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH S EXTENT OF
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER N MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ATTM THINK PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE N OF I-70
CORRIDOR.  EARLIER TAF HAD VCTS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH IT FOR THE TIME BEING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STL AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL PRIMARILY BE S OF CONVECTION AFFECTING N
MO...AND N OF THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
WINDS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NE DUE TO PASSAGE OF OUTFLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE...AND THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
400 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE
ASKED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
415 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             NOVELTY                 40.01N  92.21W
06/09/2011  E0.25 INCH       KNOX               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BYRD