A frontal boundary and associated upper level trough brought widespread rainfall of one to two inches across the Ozarks which lead to some localized flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A frontal boundary and associated upper level trough brought widespread rainfall of one to two inches across the Ozarks which lead to some localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 2:56 PM CST, 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 256 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011/ FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WITH SYSTEM DEPARTING TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB ZERO LINE VERY CAREFULLY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. WE HAVE HAD OFF AND ON REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SO FAR TODAY IN NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE REGION LOSING CLOUD ICE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WHICH BRINGS DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO PLAY. AM THINKING THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN BEFORE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME A PROBLEM...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL FOCUS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED...THOUGH WEAKENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT BOTH SHOW SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND STORM TRACKS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F...COINCIDENT WITH WINTER TIME SHEAR LEVELS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 70KT AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 40KT. SEVERE CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY AND OUTLINED WELL BY SPC/S DAY 4 OUTLOOK. AT THIS TIME ALL MODES OF CONVECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER ARE PLAUSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A QUIETER...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AFTER SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD OBSERVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. GAGAN && .AVIATION... OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE BRANSON AERODROME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUED IFR STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING. KARDELL && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM AUTOMATED GAGES INDICATE THAT ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS EASTWARD TOWARD SPRINGFIELD. BRIGHT BANDING IS CAUSING OVER-ESTIMATES OF TWO TO THREE TIMES OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS GAGE REPORTS INDICATE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IN THIS AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE STILL REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MO...BUT EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO. MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST MO WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS HAD MUCH DRIER SOILS AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NO FLOOD PROBLEMS THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1214 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251815- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 1214 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... LIMITED TORNADO RISK. ELEVATED HAIL RISK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. ELEVATED FLOODING RISK. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. DISCUSSION... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME POSITIONED ALONG THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER LATER TODAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MISSOURI MAINLY SOUTH OF A SALEM TO NEOSHO LINE WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS MISSOURI STATE LINE...WHERE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST TORNADO AND WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH IN ARKANSAS...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAIL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANDERSON TO ROLLA LINE. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...NORTH OF U.S. 54. WHILE NO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED RIGHT NOW...SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY CAUSE ISOLATED TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST INTO MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY REPORTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR SNOW WILL BE APPRECIATED. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) BOXELL
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The low water crossing at Grandview and Pacific was flooded.
MODOT reported the low water crossing at Route H at the Greene and Polk County line was flooded. Another low water crossing was flooded along Route P in Polk County between Highway C and Highway 64.
Route DD was closed at Knobby Creek because of high water.
Farm Road 156 was closed due to high water west of highway FF.
Route BB about 3 miles south of the Laclede and Camden County line was flooded.
Route K was flooded at Tavern Creek.
Highway TT in northeastern Dent County was closed due to flooding.
MODOT reported State Road H was closed due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 281933, 281939, 281943, 281948, 281949, 281950, 281953, 281957.