Hail in Missouri, April 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES TODAY...THEN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ATTENTION TURNS BACK TO MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST AND THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...SO ONLY EXPECT
A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
TO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE RAIN SHOULD TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALL THE PRECIPITATION PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO
NOT EXPECT OVERLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
44 CORRIDOR. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ADD TO THE ONGOING
FLOODING...AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES. SO...WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER TODAY A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIVELY TITLED AND WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT. THE GROUND WILL REMAIN SATURATED THIS WEEKEND FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. ITS
STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS GOING TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO THE REGION AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IFR CEILINGS WILL
IMPACT THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ESPECIALLY THE BRANSON TERMINAL.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ070-071-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1117 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON AREA STREAMS...RIVERS
  AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
  MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
  ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST
  OF A CASSVILLE TO GREENFIELD TO ROLLA LINE.

  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO THREE
  QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
  EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THIS ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL WILL ADD TO THE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  RESIDUAL FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND SEVERAL MAIN STEM
  RIVERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
  WEEKEND...WHICH COULD AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN