Typical summer time convection developed across East Arkansas during the afternoon and evening hours of August 12th, 2011. The convection moved southeast into North Mississippi by the late evening hours.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Typical summer time convection developed across East Arkansas during the afternoon and evening hours of August 12th, 2011. The convection moved southeast into North Mississippi by the late evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms became severe producing damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 7:32 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 832 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 .UPDATE... LINEAR MCS THAT MADE ITS WAY ACROSS MOST OF MO THIS AFTERNOON HAS REACHED THE EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...BUT A NEW LINE HAS FORMED ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND TAP INTO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT BY 00Z LZK SOUNDING OF 4230 J/KG. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW A SOUTH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS ALSO CLEARLY EVIDENT BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THAT DCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 1200 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH THE VERY HIGH CAPE AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED HAIL CORES WITHIN THE LINE. SO FAR HAVE ONLY GOTTEN GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS... BUT THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OF 50+ KT GUSTS AS AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN AR/SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHWEST MS. INCREASED POPS ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/BOOTHEEL MO...BUT MAY HAVE TO BRING LIKELIES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO MEMPHIS AND NORTHWEST MS IN THE NEXT HOUR. BORGHOFF && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI/LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SITUATED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BACK THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THINK BEST TIMING FOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PREDOMINATELY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...LI/S BETWEEN -4 TO -6...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GREATLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH. BETTER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE SHEAR MAY RESULT A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO WORK BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS LESS THAN DESIRED AND DECIDED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS RESOLVE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BETTER IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. CJC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS BROKEN LINE OF TSRA EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KY... SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OK. THE LINEAR CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST MO HAD DEVELOPED A COLD POOL... WHICH WILL HELP ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 12Z MODELS MODELS HAD NOT HANDLED THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTIVE TRENDS PARTICULARLY WELL... BUT THE 18Z NAM APPEARED TO BE MORE ON TRACK. ORIGINAL THOUGHT WAS THE CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD SPLIT... ONE SEGMENT HEADED TO THE SOUTHWEST AR... THE OTHER INTO NORTH CENTRAL TN. HOWEVER... KSGF RADAR WAS SHOWING A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A BROKEN LINE VS SCATTERED... AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF TSRA AFFECTING THE MEM VICINITY AFTER 02Z. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEDIUM COVERAGE IN THE CCFP BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z... HAVE PLACED A TEMPO IN THE MEM TAF. THIS MARKS A RATHER LARGE DEPARTURE FROM THE 21Z TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION VERY CLOSELY LEADING UP TO THE LATE EVENING MEM ARRIVAL PUSH. PWB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 75 91 73 90 / 30 50 30 10 MKL 70 89 69 87 / 20 50 30 10 JBR 72 88 69 87 / 80 60 30 10 TUP 71 92 72 91 / 10 50 40 20 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-131045- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT BECOME SEVERE. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
825 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0811 PM HAIL BLACK ROCK 36.11N 91.11W
08/12/2011 E1.00 INCH LAWRENCE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT
DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE TOWN OF
BLACK ROCK.
&&
RRHSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
852 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
ARZ026>028-035-036-130245-
CRAIGHEAD AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-
852 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES EAST OF TRUMANN TO 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF HICKORY RIDGE AT 852 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL OCCUR SEVERAL MINUTES
FOLLOWING THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF STRONG WINDS.
PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...CRITTENDEN...CROSS...MISSISSIPPI AND POINSETT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BAY...EARLE...HARRISBURG...
LEPANTO...MARKED TREE...PARKIN...TRUMANN...TYRONZA...VILLAGE CREEK
STATE PARK AND WYNNE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
&&
LAT...LON 3527 9104 3574 9105 3577 9093 3577 9054
3566 9028 3556 9013 3517 9026 3515 9083
3525 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 319DEG 30KT 3566 9039 3551 9078
3549 9106SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
907 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
ARZ026>028-MOZ113-130245-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-DUNKLIN MO-
907 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR...
EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM ARBYRD TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF CARAWAY AT 907 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...MISSISSIPPI AND POINSETT COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...CARAWAY...GOSNELL...KEISER...
LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE...LUXORA...MANILA...MONETTE...OSCEOLA...SENATH
AND WILSON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BIG LAKE.
&&
LAT...LON 3618 9020 3587 8978 3575 8989 3576 8991
3574 8995 3568 8995 3553 9007 3577 9053
3595 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 307DEG 25KT 3604 9023 3589 9020
3569 9032SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
ARZ027-028-035-036-048-049-MSZ007-130330-
CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-
ST. FRANCIS AR-TUNICA MS-
943 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GILMORE TO 3 MILES WEST OF FAIR
OAKS AT 942 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAIN BY AS MUCH
AS 30 MINUTES.
PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...CROSS...LEE...MISSISSIPPI...POINSETT...ST.
FRANCIS AND TUNICA COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR EARLE...
FORREST CITY...HUGHES...MADISON...MARIANNA...PALESTINE...PARKIN...
TYRONZA...VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK AND WYNNE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 9115 3501 9105 3536 9104 3556 9018
3504 9027 3504 9029 3502 9031 3497 9029
3473 9037 3479 9111 3490 9112 3491 9116
3498 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 344DEG 17KT 3545 9017 3520 9108SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
MSZ001-007-TNZ049-088-130400-
TUNICA MS-DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN-TIPTON TN-
1017 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR...
DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AT 1017 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
PEOPLE IN DESOTO...SHELBY...TIPTON AND TUNICA COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BARTLETT...CORDOVA...GERMANTOWN...HERNANDO...HORN
LAKE...MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...OLIVE BRANCH...SOUTHAVEN AND T O FULLER STATE PARK...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
ALSO INCLUDES CORONEE LAKE...HORN LAKE...LAKE MCKELLAR AND ROBCO
LAKE.
&&
LAT...LON 3475 9035 3488 9030 3492 9024 3497 9027
3503 9025 3504 9019 3513 9016 3513 9007
3519 9012 3522 9007 3527 9017 3530 9016
3531 9011 3538 9007 3541 9012 3548 9010
3541 9006 3544 9002 3525 8968 3483 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 298DEG 13KT 3525 9010SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 ARZ036-MSZ001-007-008-TNZ088-130415- CRITTENDEN AR-TUNICA MS-TATE MS-DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN- 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR... EAST CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS AT 1033 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...DESOTO...SHELBY...TATE AND TUNICA COUNTIES... INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HERNANDO...HORN LAKE...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS... OLIVE BRANCH...SENATOBIA...SOUTHAVEN...T O FULLER STATE PARK AND WEST MEMPHIS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BRANDYWINE LAKE...HORN LAKE...LAKE MCKELLAR AND ROBCO LAKE. && LAT...LON 3459 8975 3458 9030 3521 9019 3529 8990 TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 334DEG 27KT 3505 9002
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:53 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds knocked several trees down in the area southeast of Southaven, near the intersection of Getwell Road and Church Road. One tree fell onto a house causing damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, August 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 343770.