Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.

A 70KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BOTTOM OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CAPES FORECAST AROUND 3000 J/KG. WITH
PLENTY OF LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL NEAR OR OVER
GOLFBALL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. INITIALLY
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE HIGH, HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE
EVENING THEY WILL FALL. THE STORMS SHOULD END BY AROUND 9 PM FROM
MEDICINE LODGE TO LIBERAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO KANSAS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BUT WITH LOW SHEAR SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN COLORADO IN WESTERN KANSAS FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
ALLOWING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO RETURN INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN THE
SHEAR PROFILE LOOKS WEAK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYS 3-7...

JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS BUT THE SAME STORY HOLDS
TRUE WITH SOME PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS, A DRYING PERIOD, THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

MY PERIOD BEGINS 00Z MONDAY. STILL KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE IN THE 90S PRIMARILY WITH SLIGHT POPS CARRIED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BY TUESDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THIS RESULTS IN GHOSTS POPS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS AROUND 100 DEG F LOOK REASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE CWFA.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES
WEST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TURN OUR UPPER LEVEL
FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND THEREFORE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS MARKED BY SLIGHT
POPS IN THE GRIDS. THIS LESS HOT AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK. -SUGDEN

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE CB AND
VCTS FOR KDDC AFTER FOLLOWING RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS
LESS OF A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KGCK AND KHYS. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT
TODAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD ERUPT IN THE 20-23Z
TIMEFRAME FROM ELKHART TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED AND THEN PUSH EAST
THROUGH 9 PM CDT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/COLD POOL SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. -SUGDEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  91  65  91 /  30  10  10  20
GCK  64  91  64  91 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  65  92  66  91 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  65  93  66  92 /  30  10  20  20
HYS  64  88  63  88 /  20  10  10  10
P28  69  93  67  92 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/36/36

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-132000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 /159 PM MDT FRI AUG 12 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
LACROSSE TO NEAR GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL STARTING BETWEEN 3 AND 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MEADE, GREENSBURG, COLDWATER, PRATT, AND END BY AROUND 9 PM AT
MEDICINE LODGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
ON SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALSO BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LACROSSE TO NEAR GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL BY 3 TO 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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